NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

 FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:  SATURDAY 31ST JULY 2010 (AFTERNOON)

SKIES REMAINED MOSTLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING. RADAR OBS INDICATED THAT SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTH AND INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SAT PICS SUGGESTED THAT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH WAVE AND UNSTABLE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN IS NOW WEST OF AREA.

SFC CHART HAS WEAK TW WEST OF AREA AND SURFACE FLOW IS FROM THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST. ANOTHER TW IS SITUATED ALONG 74W. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE ANALYSIS (GOES-EAST) IS SHOWING WEAK DIVERGENCE OVER THE SOUTHERN DISTRICTS. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH AT  700MB. 

SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE WITH AT PWAT 57.23, KINX 32.80.

SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY:  A SFC LOW OVER YUCATAN AND OVER NW BELIZE SUPPORTS  A NE AIRFLOW OVER THE AREA TOMORROW. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH AT LOW LEVEL. IN THE MEAN TIME, HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PRODUCES A MORE CONVERGENT AND NE PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS ON SUNDAY. SFC LOW, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL LIKELY SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS INLAND. 

SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY: SFC TROUGH OVER SE MEXICO WILL KEEP FLOW FROM THE NE. AT THE SAME TIME, LL CONVERGENCE INCREASES OVER THE AREA. HOWEVER, MOISTURE DROPS OFF OVER NORTHERN BELIZE. LL CONVERGENCE, HEATING AND MOISTURE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED AFTERNOON TS INLAND MONDAY.

FORECAST:  MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. CLOUDY SPELLS TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MAINLY SOUTHERN AND SOME PARTS OF THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THEN SOUTHERN AND INLAND AREAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

EXTENDED:  SIMILAR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MARINE:  WINDS: E/NE 5-15 KT. SEAS: CHOPPY-ROUGH. WAVES: 4-6 FT.;A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECASTER:  GORDON