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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

(February - March - April 2017) and (May - June - July 2017)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

 

Based on on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period February - March - April 2017 (FMA 2017) is for Near Normal rainfall over northern and southern areas of the country and below normal rainfall over central areas. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period February-March-April 2017 are as follows:

 

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 100-150 Near Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 100-150

Slightly Below

Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 100-150 Slightly Below
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 200-300 Near Normal

 

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period May - June - July 2017 (MJJ 2017)  is for Below Normal rainfall  over the northern half of the country and above normal rainfall over the southern half. Maximum daytime temperatures are expected to be normal during this period but mimimum nighttime temperatures will be above normal.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period May - June - July 2017 are as follows:

 

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts)  250-350  Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District)  400-600  Slightly Below
Central Costal Areas (Belize District)  400-500  Slightly Below
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts)  800-1800  Above Normal

 

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range. 

 

Period Rainfall Maps Percent Maps (Below/Above) Maximum Temperature Maps Minimum Temperature Maps
Feb-Mar-Apr (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map
May-June-July (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map

 

What influences the next season? Recent obervations suggests that sea surface temperatures in the  equatorial eastern Pacific are about 0.5 degrees celcius below normal. This indicates borderline La Niña conditions. Model guidance suggest that conditions will return to ENSO Neutral conditions through the FMA 2017 season (55-75% Confidence).  There is little confidence in the May-June-July forecast since the major climate indicators are weak during this period. Users are asked to continue to monitor the situation and stay tuned for updates that will be provided during the coming months.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.