|Latest Press Release (Hurricane Season 2016)|
Start of the 2016 Hurricane Season
Today, Wednesday 1st June marks the beginning of the 2016 hurricane season. The outlooks on activity this season as presented by the more reliable and reputable organizations point to an average to slightly above average number of systems in the Atlantic Basin (Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico). The prediction for the number of named systems lies between 10 and 17. The long term average number of named systems for the 1981 to 2010 period is twelve. Meanwhile the forecast is for between 4 and 9 of these systems becoming hurricanes. The long term average is 6 hurricanes. Finally, the range for intense hurricanes reaching Category 3, 4 or 5 strength, as projected is between 1 and 4. The long term average is for two intense hurricanes to occur. Two preseason systems Alex and Bonnie have already formed.
The El Niño phenomenon which is the abnormal warming of the Pacific Ocean, usually has a suppressing effect on tropical cyclone activity in the Atlantic Basin. This phenomenon is weakening steadily and will all but be gone by July or August. The absence of El Niño should reduce the strong upper-level westerly winds that were present in the Caribbean and across portions of the tropical Atlantic last season. While El Niño is weakening and is likely to dissipate by the end of the first half of this season, the far North Atlantic Ocean is quite cold. The cold far North Atlantic Ocean often generates atmospheric conditions associated with increased sinking motion and stable air across the tropical Atlantic.
The numbers as indicated in the seasonal outlooks do not tell the full story, though. We should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted. Seasonal outlooks do not tell where the tropical cyclones could make landfall or the number of hits any one particular location could experience. It is worthwhile reiterate that regardless of the activity predicted in the seasonal outlooks it takes only one system to create a disaster. It is being emphasized as per normal that proper planning and preparations are the keys to preserving life and property.
We, the staff of the National Meteorological Service of Belize, with preparations firmly in place, will once again be performing at our utmost best to provide you with accurate and timely information on all systems that could have an impact on our nation.
Have a safe 2016 hurricane season.
List of Names for the Atlantic 2016 Hurricane Season
|Last Updated on Wednesday, 01 June 2016 20:57|