Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs. To produce monthly forecast, which are considered subseasonal forecasts, the forecast evolution of intra-seasonal oscillations such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation are paid special attention to.
Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country for the month of October 2018 is for above normal rainfall over southern and east-central areas and near normal rainfall for northern and west-central areas of the country. Near normal maximum/daytime temperatures are expected while minimum/nighttime temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal.
Rainfall amounts that are expected across key districts stations in October 2018 are as follows:
|Region||Station||Rainfall Amount (mm)||Category|
|North||Tower Hill||170-190||Near Normal|
|North||Rio Bravo||185-205||Near Normal|
|Central Inland Areas||Central Farm||200-230||Near Normal|
|Central Inland Areas||Belmopan||235-275||slightly above|
|Central Coastal Areas||Airport||310-370||above normal|
|Mountainous Areas||Baldy Beacon||370-430||above normal|
|South||Punta Gorda||410-490||above normal|
The maps below show approximate rainfall totals that can be expected. The expected maximum and minimum temperatures are also shown. Users are advised that the amounts shown are only an approximation and are therefore cautioned not to focus on the exact value on the maps but instead to expect that the rainfall and temperature should be somewhere in that general range.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald
Last Updated: Thu, Sep 27, 2018 | 01:25 PM