Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs. To produce monthly forecast, which are considered subseasonal forecasts, the forecast evolution of intra-seasonal oscillations such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation are paid special attention to.
Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country for the month of September 2018 ranges from above normal rainfall in the south to below normal rainfall in the north. Rainfall may be as low as 20-30% below normal in the north and as high as 20-30% above normal over southern areas. Nighttime (minimum) temperatures are expected to be well above normal during the month while daytime (maximum) temperatures will slightly above normal.
Rainfall amounts that are expected across key districts stations in September 2018 are as follows:
|Region||Station||Rainfall Amount (mm)||Category|
|North||Tower Hill||140-160||Below Normal|
|North||Rio Bravo||145-165||Below Normal|
|Central Inland Areas||Central Farm||150-170||Slightly Below|
|Central Inland Areas||Belmopan||235-275||Near Normal|
|Central Coastal Areas||Airport||230-270||Near Normal|
|Mountainous Areas||Baldy Beacon||240-280||slightly Above|
|South||Punta Gorda||630-730||Above Normal|
The maps below show approximate rainfall totals that can be expected. The expected maximum and minimum temperatures are also shown. Users are advised that the amounts shown are only an approximation and are therefore cautioned not to focus on the exact value on the maps but instead to expect that the rainfall and temperature should be somewhere in that general range.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald
Last Updated: Fri, Sep 14, 2018 | 10:51 PM