Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.
Based on these inputs, the rainfall forecast for the country during the period February - March - April 2019 (FMA 2019) is for below normal rainfall across the country with values ranging from around 20% below normal in the south to around 40% below normal in the north. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be a bit warmer than normal during this period while minimum/nighttime temperatures will slightly cooler than normal.
Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period February-March-April 2019 are as follows:
|REGION||RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)||CATEGORY|
|North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts)||60-100||Below Normal|
|Central Inland Areas (Cayo District)||100-200||Below Normal|
|Central Costal Areas (Belize District)||100-160||Below Normal|
|Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts)||150-250||Below Normal|
Rainfall across the country during the period May-June-July 2019 (MJJ 2019) is forecast to range from near normal amounts over southern areas to below normal amounts in the north. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.
Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period May-June-July 2019 are as follows:
|REGION||RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)||CATEGORY|
|North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts)||300-400||Below Normal|
|Central Inland Areas (Cayo District)||350-600||Near Normal - Slightly Below|
|Central Costal Areas (Belize District)||400-500||Near Normal - Slightly Below|
|Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts)||800-1400||Near Normal|
Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.
|Period||Rainfall Maps||Percent Maps (Below/Above)||Maximum Temperature Maps||Minimum Temperature Maps|
What influences the next season?
- The SST anomalies have decreased to about 0.5°C in the Niño3.4 region of the Pacific indicating borderline El Niño conditions. Meanwhile Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Caribbean Sea SSTs are hovering near average. The sub-tropical areas of the North Atlantic and the far Western Caribbean remain warmer than average with anomalies of around 1°C.
- A majority of models suggest that the current weak El Nino will persist at least through April 2019 with odds of neutral conditions increasing toward the summer.
- An El Niño event would tend to favour drier conditions across the region except over the northern and northwestern Caribbean, where odds of normal to above normal rainfall increases with an El Nino in the FMA season. Another impact of El Nino during the winter months is the increase frequency of frontal intrusion into the Northwest Caribbean Sea.
- Note, however, that these effects tend to be more dominant with stronger El Niño signals, while only a weak El Niño is currently occurring and forecast to continue occurring. Moreover, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of the major climate drivers. Users of this information are therefore advised to continue monitoring the monthly updates.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.