Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
  • Small Craft Caution in effect for gusty winds and occasionally rough seas.
Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

Based on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period February-March-April 2018 (FMA 2018) is for near normal rainfall for most of the country, except for a below normal rainfall trend over northern Belize and an above normal trend over southern coastal areas. Temperatures are expected to be near normal during this period, except for some central inland areas.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period February-March-April 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 80-120 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 135-225 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 150-180 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 250-350 Normal

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period May-June-July 2018 (MJJ 2018) is for near normal rainfall over most of the country, with the exception of extreme northern and southern Belize. Maximum temperatures are expected to be near normal during this period, while minimum temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal.

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period April-May-June 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 350-500 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 450-750 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 500-600 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 700-1700 Near Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Feb-Mar-Apr (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
May-Jun-Jul (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season? Recent observations show Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) region hovering below normal at around -0.7 degrees Celsius below average. Most global models suggest that temperatures should remain in that general range up to April 2018 which indicates moderate cool ENSO conditions and gradually transition into a weak La Niña by June 2018. Additionally, temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are also just above average. Warm conditions in the Atlantic, coupled with slight cooling in the Pacific (Niño 3.4 region) suggests normal to above normal rainfall over our region. However, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the major climate drivers and therefore users of this information are therefore ask to continue to monitor the monthly updates.

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.