Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Showers and thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico associated with a surface trough, has a low chance of development. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the North Atlantic, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period June-July-August 2018 (JJA 2018) is for below normal rainfall over most areas of the country. Driest conditions are expected in the north where rainfall amounts could be as low as 40% below normal. Meanwhile the south will see around 10-20% below normal. Maximum temperatures are expected to be near normal during this period while minimum nighttime temperatures will be just slightly cooler than in recent years.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period June-July-August 2018 are as follows:

 

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 250-350 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 300-600 Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 400-500 Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 800-1700 Below Normal

The Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period September-October-November 2018 (SON 2018) is for near normal rainfall over most areas. Temperatures are expected to be just slightly above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period September-October-November 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 450-550 NearNormal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 500-800 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 700-800 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 900-1300 Near Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Jun-Jul-Aug (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Sept-Oct-Nov (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

What influences the next season? Observations show that Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) have become near normal suggesting neutral ENSO conditions. Most global models suggest that temperatures should start warming up slightly with either neutral to slightly warm or a weak to moderate El Nino by mid-summer. Moderate warming in the Nino 3.4 region would suggests drier conditions over our region. However, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the major climate drivers. ENSO in particular ia known to be quite unpredictable during the northern hemisphere spring. Users of this information are therefore asked to continue to monitor the monthly updates.