Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
  • Small Craft Caution in effect for gusty winds and occasionally rough seas.
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tropical cyclone formation is not expected over the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.
November 2018    |     Print Report

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to  produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the  historical data observed at these stations,  global and regional climate models,  statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period November-December-January 2018-2019 (NDJ 2018-2019) is for normal to slightly above normal rainfall over southern and central areas and normal to slightly below normal rainfall over northern areas. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal during this period while minimum/nighttime temperatures will be above normal.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period November-December-January 2018-2019 are as follows:

 

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 150-250 Normal - Slightly Below
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 400-800 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 400-600 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 600-700 Normal - Slightly Above

The Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period February-March-April 2019 (FMA 2019) is for normal to slightly below normal rainfall over the southern areas and below normal rainfall over central and northern portions of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period February-March-April 2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 50-100 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 150-200 Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 100-150 Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 150-300 Normal - Slightly Below Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Nov-Dec-Jan (2018-2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Feb-Mar-Apr (2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

  1. The SST anomalies have increased to around 0.4°C in the Niño3.4 region of the Pacific. Meanwhile Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Caribbean Sea SSTs have warmed to near average except just off the West African Coast where they remain around 1.0°C below average. The sub-tropical areas of the North Atlantic remain warmer than average with anomalies of around 1-2°C.
  2. A majority of models suggest ENSO conditions to evolve into a weak to moderate El Nino (with 70-90% and 65-90% confidence for NDJ and FMA, respectively).
  3. An El Niño event would tend to favour drier conditions across the region except over the northern and northwestern Caribbean including, Belize where odds of normal to above normal rainfall increases with an El Nino in the NDJ season.
  4. Note, however, that these effects tend to be more dominant with stronger El Niño signals, while only a weak to moderate El Niño is forecast. Moreover, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of the major climate drivers. Users of this information are therefore advised to continue monitoring the monthly updates.