Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

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Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, and statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period April-May-June 2018 (AMJ 2018) is for below normal rainfall over most areas of the country with the exception of central areas where rainfall is expected be near normal. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period April-May-June 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 250-350 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 300-400 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 350-450 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 400-700 Slightly Below Normal

The Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period July-August-September 2018 (JAS 2018) is for below normal rainfall over most areas of the country. However, the extreme south will trend towards near normal rainfall. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period July-August-September 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 350-450 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 350-550 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 450-550 Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 700-1800 Below to Near Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Apr-May-Jun (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Jul-Aug-Sept (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

Observations show Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) region hovering below normal at around -0.7 degrees Celsius below average during the January-February-March season. Most global models suggest that temperatures should start warming up and become neutral by May-June-July followed by a possible transition to a weak El Nino by mid-summer. Moderate warming in the Nino 3.4 region would suggests drier conditions over our region. However, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the major climate drivers. ENSO in particular ia known to be quite unpredictable during the northern hemisphere spring. Users of this information are therefore asked to continue to monitor the monthly updates.