Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • At 3:00am, Hurricane Maria was located near 21.6N, 70.6W or 35mls ENE of Grand Turk Island. Maria was moving NW at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 125mph. Tropical Storm Jose has become Post Tropical.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

Based on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period August-September-October 2017 (ASO 2017) is for near normal rainfall for most of the country with slightly above normal amounts in the north. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period August - September - October 2017 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 600-700 Slightly above Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 500-800 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 700-800 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 1000-1700 Near Normal

 

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period November-December 2017-January 2018 (NDJ 2017-2018) is for Just Above Normal rainfall over northern areas and near normal rainfall over the rest of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period November-December 2017-January 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 200-300 Slightly Above Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 400-800 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 500-600 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 500-700 Near Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Aug-Sep-Oct (2017) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Nov-Dec-Jan (2017-2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season? Recent observations show Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) region hovering just above normal at around 0.5 degrees Celsius above average. Most global models suggests that temperatures should remain in that general range during the next few months which indicates neutral ENSO conditions. Additionally, temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are also just above average. Warm conditions in the Atlantic, coupled with no significant shift toward El Nino in the Pacific suggests normal to above normal rainfall over our region. However, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the major climate drivers and therefore users of this information are therefore ask to continue to monitor the monthly updates.

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.