Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, or the Gulf of Mexico, during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.
October 2018    |     Print Report

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period October-November-December 2018 (OND 2018) is for normal to slightly above normal rainfall over southern and central areas and normal to slightly below normal rainfall over northern areas. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal during this period while minimum/nighttime temperatures will be above normal.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period October-November-December 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 250-350 Normal - Slightly Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 400-800 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 600-700 Slightly Above Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 700-1000 Above Normal

The Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period January-February-March 2019 (JFM 2019) is for normal to slightly below normal rainfall over the southern areas and below normal rainfall over central and northern portions of the country. Temperatures are expected to be just slightly above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period January-February-March 2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 70-100 Near Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 150-400 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 200-250 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 250-350 Slightly Above Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Oct-Nov-Dec (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Jan-Feb-Mar (2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

  1. The SST anomalies have increased to 0-0.5°C in the Niño3.4 region of the Pacific. Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SSTs have warmed to near-seasonable temperatures (anomaly of around 0 to -0.5°C) in the Caribbean Sea and further east, while remaining above average (+0.5 to +1°C) further north.
  2. A majority of models forecast continued warming of the Niño3.4 region in OND, with 60-70% chance that weak or moderate El Niño conditions are in place by OND, and 65-75% by JFM 2019. Models further indicate sustained positive anomalies to the north of the region by OND and JFM, with slightly positive SST anom. in the TNA and C’bean Sea by JFM.
  3. If El Niño manifests by OND, an enhanced sub-tropical jet would tend to increase precipitation in the northern Caribbean (including Belize). However, El Niño would increase wind shear further south, and reduce storminess and precipitation there, as well as decrease the potential for strong late-season hurricane activity.
  4. Note, however, that these effects tend to be more dominant with stronger El Niño signals, while only a weak to moderate El Niño is on forecast. Moreover, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of the major climate drivers. Users of this information are therefore advised to continue monitoring the monthly updates.