Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
December 2018    |     Print Report

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the rainfall forecast for the country during the period December - January - February 2018-2019 (DJF 2018-2019) is for normal to slightly above normal rainfall over southern areas, near normal rainfall over central areas and normal to slightly below normal rainfall over northern areas of the country. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal during this period while minimum/nighttime temperatures will be slightly below normal.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period December-January-February 2018-2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 130-170 Normal - Slightly Below
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 300-650 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 340-400 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 400-600 Normal - Slightly Above

The Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period March-April-May 2019 (MAM 2019) is for normal to slightly above normal rainfall over southern areas, near normal rainfall over central areas and normal to slightly below normal rainfall over northern areas of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period March-April-May 2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 140-170 Normal - Slightly Below
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 170-240 Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 220-260 Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 250-420 Normal - Slightly Above

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Dec-Jan-Feb (2018-2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Mar-Apr-May (2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

What influences the next season?

  1. The SST anomalies have increased to around 0.75°C in the Niño3.4 region of the Pacific. Meanwhile Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Caribbean Sea SSTs have warmed to near average. The sub-tropical areas of the North Atlantic remain warmer than average with anomalies of around 1°C.
  2. A majority of models suggest ENSO conditions to evolve into a moderate El Nino (with 80-95% and 55-85% confidence for DJF and MAM, respectively).
  3. An El Niño event would tend to favour drier conditions across the region except over the northern and northwestern Caribbean including, Belize where odds of normal to above normal rainfall increases with an El Nino in the DJF season.
  4. Note, however, that these effects tend to be more dominant with stronger El Niño signals, while only a moderate El Niño is forecast. Moreover, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of the major climate drivers. Users of this information are therefore advised to continue monitoring the monthly updates.