Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • - At 9:00pm Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 39.7N and longitude 45.1W or about 630 miles SE of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Ernesto was moving to the NNE at 10mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. - Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.
August 2018    |     Print Report

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, and statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period August-September-October 2018 (ASO 2018) is for normal to slightly above normal rainfall over southern areas and below normal rainfall over central and northern areas. Driest conditions are expected in the north where rainfall amounts could be as low as 30% below normal. Maximum temperatures are expected to be near normal during this period while minimum nighttime temperatures will be just slightly cooler than in recent years.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period August-September-October 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 350-450 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 350-750 Slightly Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 530-630 Slightly Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 900-1900 Slightly Above Normal

The Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period November-December-January 2018-2019 (NDJ 2018-2019) is for slightly above normal rainfall over the south and near normal over the remainder of the country. Temperatures are expected to be just slightly above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period November-December-January 2018-2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 200-260 Near Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 400-800 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 500-560 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 600-800 Slightly Above Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Aug-Sept-Oct (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Nov-Dec-Jan (2018-2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

Observations show that Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) are just slightly above normal. Most global models suggest that a gradual warming trend will continue during the next few months with the possibility of a weak to moderate El Nino developing later in the year by the end of the ASO season. Moderate warming in the Nino 3.4 region would suggests drier conditions over our region. In the Caribbean and North Atlantic, SSTs have been generally lower than normal during the past few months. However, indications are that the Atlantic values have reached their lowest and a slow warming trend is expected. This indicator would suggest that the worst of the dry conditions are being experienced now and that conditions should return to normal at least by the end of the ASO period. There is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the major climate drivers. Users of this information are therefore asked to continue to monitor the monthly updates.