Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
  • Small Craft Caution is in effect for occasional gusty winds and rough seas.

January 2018    |     Print Report

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to  produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the  historical data observed at these stations,  global and regional climate models,  statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the rainfall forecast for the country during the period January - February - March 2019 (JFM 2019) is for below normal rainfall across the country with values ranging from around 20% below normal in the south to around 40% below normal in the north. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal during this period while minimum/nighttime temperatures will be near normal.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period January-February-March 2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 70-100 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 150-300 Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 160-220 Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 200-300 Below Normal

The Rainfall Forecast for the country during the period April-May-June 2019 (AMJ 2019) is for normal to slightly above normal rainfall over southern areas, near normal rainfall over central areas and normal to slightly below normal rainfall over northern areas of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period April-May-June 2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 250-350 Normal - Slightly Below
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 300-500 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 300-500 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 600-900 Normal - Slightly Above

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Jan-Feb-Mar (2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Apr-May-Jun (2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

  1. The SST anomalies have increased to almost 1°C in the Niño3.4 region of the Pacific. Meanwhile Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Caribbean Sea SSTs are hovering near average. The sub-tropical areas of the North Atlantic remain warmer than average with anomalies of around 1°C.
  2. A majority of models suggest that the current weak to moderate El Nino will persist at least through May 2019.
  3. An El Niño event would tend to favour drier conditions across the region except over the northern and northwestern Caribbean, where odds of normal to above normal rainfall increases with an El Nino in the JFM season. Another impact of El Nino during the winter months is the increase frequency of frontal intrusion into the Northwest Caribbean Sea.
  4. Note, however, that these effects tend to be more dominant with stronger El Niño signals, while only a moderate El Niño is currently occurring and forecast to continue occurring. Moreover, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of the major climate drivers. Users of this information are therefore advised to continue monitoring the monthly updates.

Disclaimer

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.