Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

Based on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period November-December 2017-January 2018 (NDJ 2017-2018) is for near normal rainfall for most of the country with a trend to slightly above normal rainfall in the west and over southern coastal areas. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period November-December 2017-January 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 200-300 Near Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 450-550 Normal - Above
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 550-650 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 600-800 Normal - Above

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period February-March-April 2018 (FMA 2018) is for below normal rainfall over northern and western areas, near normal rainfall over central areas and normal to slightly above normal rainfall in the south. Maximum temperatures are expected to be near normal during this period while minimum temperatures are expected to be above normal.

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period February-March-April 2018 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 75-125 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 125-175 Slightly Below
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 150-200 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 200-300 Slightly Above

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Nov-Dec-Jan (2017-2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
February-March-April (2018) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season? Recent observations show Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) region hovering just below normal at around -0.4 degrees Celsius below average. Most global models suggest that temperatures should remain in that general range during the next few months which indicates neutral to weak cool ENSO conditions. Additionally, temperatures in the tropical Atlantic Ocean are also just above average. Warm conditions in the Atlantic, coupled with slight cooling in the Pacific (nino 3.4 region) suggests normal to above normal rainfall over our region. However, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the major climate drivers and therefore users of this information are therefore ask to continue to monitor the monthly updates.

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.