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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE:  WEDNESDAY 29TH MARCH 2017 (EVENING)

FAIR WEATHER PERSISTED OVER THE COUNTRY AND SURROUNDING AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THRU THIS EVENING. BZE SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. ONLY SHALLOW CONVECTIVE CU WERE SEEN ON SAT (VIS) IMAGERY TO BE STREAMING ACROSS THE COUNTRY IN AN ESE'LY AIRFLOW. THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING SHOWED LOW LEV MOISTURE NEAR THE SFC. AVAILABLE PRECIP WATER WAS 31.05MM. THE SOUNDING ALSO SHOWED A STABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA. 

SFC ANALYSIS (18Z) SHOWED TROF OF LOW PRESSURE OVER MAINLAND MEX, WITH LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER CNTRL MEX. HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST EXTEDNED OVER FL AREA, E'RN GULF OF MEX AND THE W'RN CARIB. RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES, AND SUPPORTED MOD E-SE'LY AIRFLOW OVER BZE AREA TODAY. TROFING CONTINUED OVER THE E'RN CARIB, WITH CF EXTENDING TO OVER PUERTO RICO AREA FROM LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER THE W'RN N ATL. ANOTHER CF WAS SHOWN OVER EXTREME W'RN N ATL, EXTENDING OVER SE'RN USA AS WARM FRONT, MEETING LOW PRESSURE AREA OVER TEX, WHTER ANOTHER EXTENDED (OVER TEX). 

THE MODELS (GFS, WRF, NAM) AGREE WITH FCST OF LITTLE OR NO PRECIP DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND WRF (12Z RUNS) HINTED AT VERY LOW PRECIP AMTS OVER MAYA MTNS AREA (INLAND) LATE TOMORROW. HOWEVER, THE GFS 18Z RUN DOES NOT SUGGEST AS MUCH. 

FORECAST:  PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNNY TOMORROW. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK:  FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS FOR CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER.

MARINE:   WINDS: E-SE 10-20 KT; SEAS: MODERATE; WAVES: 4-6FT.

FCSTR:  A. Guy