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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: THURSDAY 27TH NOVEMBER 2014 (AFTERNOON) 

SKIES WERE OVERCAST THIS MORNING.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS MOIST CONDITIONS ALOFT .

AT UPPER-LEVELS, A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND CENTRAL AMERICA SUPPORTS A W'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND 300MB OVER BELIZE. THE PATTERN IS UNSTABLE. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE VERY MOIST (RH-90%) AND RIDGING SUPPORTS A NE'LY FLOW. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE ALSO VERY MOIST, WHILE THE FLOW IS N/NE'LY. AT THE SURFACE, THE 12Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT, LYING FROM GUATEMALA, EAST TO HONDURAS, WHERE IT MERGED WITH A COLD FRONT WHICH RAN  TO CENTRAL CUBA AND BEYOND. A 1028MB HIGH CENTER WAS PLACED IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO. ANOTEHR COLD FRONT WAS PLACED IN THE NORTHER GULF OF MEXICO. A STRONG N/NW'LY FLOW PREVAILED ACROSS BELIZE.

THURS AFTERNOON TO FRI MIDDAY:

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL COLLAPSE AND THE ZONAL, WESTERLY FLOW WILL DOMINATE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTH,BUT REMIAN HIGH OVER THE SOUTH,  WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NE. AT 850MB, THE SAME PROCESS OCCURS, BUT THE THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NNE. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT  EAST OF BELIZE WILL BECOME STATIONARY, WHILE THE SECOND COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT EASTWARD OVER FLORIDA. THE HIGH IN THE GULF WILL BEGIN TO DISSIPATE, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE  N/NE, BECOMING MOD TO STONG DURING FRI. THE  GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS .01IN-.10IN/3HRS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST. NAM SHOWS .01IN/3HRS DURING THIS CYCLE. 

FRI AFTERNOON TO SAT MIDDAY:

THE WESTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST ALOFT DURING THIS CYCLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE DRIES OUT BY THE END OF THE CYCLE, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NE/E. AT 850MB, MOISTURE REMAINS HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NE.  AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT EAST OF BELIZE  SLOWLY DISSIPATES, WHILE THE SECOND MOVES FARTHER EAST ACROSS FLORIDA. THE FLOW VEERS TO THE  NORTHEAST DURING THIS CYCLE.  GFS SHOWS .01IN-.10IN/3HRS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST. NAM SHOWS MOSTLY.01IN/3HRS ALONG THE COAST, THEN DRYING OUT BY THE END OF THE CYCLE.

 

FORECAST: GENERALLY CLOUDY AND WINDY WEATHER. A FEW SHOWERS AND SOME PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK:  A SIMILAR TREND WILL OCCUR BETWEEN FRI AFTERNOON AND SAT MIDDAY.

MARINE:  WINDS: N/NW  15-25 KT WITH OCCNL HIGHER GUSTS.;SEAS:ROUGH; WAVES:5-7 FT; A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN, ESPECIALLY SOUTH.

FORECASTER: Wellington