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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE:  TUESDAY 28TH MARCH 2017 (AFTERNOON)

THE WEATHER CONTINUED MAINLY FAIR AND DRY THIS MORNING. THE RADAR SHOWED VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL. CONDITIONS WERE RELATIVELY DRY OVER OUR AREA, WITH THE MIMIC TPW IMAGE SHOWING PWAT OF 30-35MM EAST OF BELIZE, AND THE WATER VAPOR IMAGES SHOWING DRY AIR AR MID AND UPPER LEVELS OVER THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO AND CARIBBEAN REGION. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 12Z (NHC) SHOWED A LOW OVER NE MEXICO THAT EXTENDED A TROF TO S'RN MEXICO AND A WEAK HIGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. AN EAST-SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WAS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, LOW PRESSURES WERE OVER N'RN COLOMBUA, AND A 1004MB LOW WAS OVER THE ATLANTIC NEAR 27N/66W. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED AT 850MB, WHERE A SIMILAR PATTERN PREVAILED; WHILE AT 700MB WEAK TROFFING NORTH OF BELIZE SUPPORTED A LIGHT WESTERLY FLOW. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN WAS WEAKLY CONVERGENT. A WEAK UPPER RIDGE HAD AXIS JUST WEST OF BELIZE AT 300MB, WHILE AT 200MB A WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW WAS SUPPORTED BY A BROAD RIDGE FROM N'RN SOUTH AMERICA W'WD TO THE E'RN PACIFIC. 

THE GFS FORECASTS THE LOW AND TROF SYSTEM OVER NE AND S'RN MEXICO TO DRIFT TO THE W'RN GULF AND BAY OF CAMPECHE THROUGH THURSDAY, AND A COLD FRONT TO ENTER THE NW GULF THURSDAY MORNING. THE WEAK SURFACE HIGH OVER THE NE GULF IS TO MOVE EAST OF FLORIDA AND WEAKEN LATER TOMORROW. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR AREA, WHICH IS TO GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO CONTINUE GENERALLY CONVERGENT, AS THE BROAD UPPER RIDGE AT 200MB REMAINS IN PLACE, WITH ITS AXIS DRIFTING EAST OF BELIZE BY THURSDAY. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THIS SUGGESTS THAT FAIR AND DRY WEATHER, WITH A GRADUAL WARMING TREND, WILL PREVAIL. 

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE SURFACE PATTERN EVOLUTION OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE GFS AND NVG GO FOR VERY LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY. THE NAM SHOWS LIGHT AMOUNTS OF RAIN DEVELOPING MAINLY INLAND AND SOUTH TOMORROW AND THURSDAY. 

FORECAST:  MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK:  CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR AND WARM.  

MARINE:   WINDS: EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-20KTS; SEAS: CHOPPY - MODERATE; WAVES: 3-5FT.

FCSTR:  RUDON