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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: TUESDAY 31ST MARCH 2015 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE CLOUDY OVER THE S'RN HALF OF THE COUNTRY, WHERE A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE, IT WAS PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LITTLE OR RAINFALL. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z (NHC) SHOWED A RIDGE, WITH DUAL 1021MB CENTERS, FROM THE NE'RN GULF OF MEXICO TO THE ATLANTIC NEAR 65W. A 1009MB LOW WAS NEAR E'RN PANAMA, AND AN EAST-NORTHEAST GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND BELIZE. THE EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED AT 850 MB. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL, WITH A BROAD UPPER RIDGE  AXIS FROM N'RN VENEZUALA TO THE E'RN PACIFIC COAST OF CNTRL AMERICA. HIGH LEVEL WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILED OVER OUR AREA. THE MOISTURE WAS LOW OVER THE NORTH, BUT RELATIVELY HIGH OVER S'RN BELIZE, ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS THEN IN A FOUR DEGREE WIDE SWATH TO JAMAICA AND HAITI. PWAT IN THIS AREA WAS AROUND 50MM. 

THE GFS FORECASTS THE MOISTURE LEVEL TO DECREASE THIS EVENING AND EARLY TONIGHT OVER CNTRL BELIZE, THEN INCREASE TOMORROW MORNING AND REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OVER THE SOUTH, THE MOISTURE IS TO CONTINUE RELATIVELY HIGH THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. THE HIGH CENTER OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO IS TO WEAKEN AND THE RIDGE TO PULL EAST OUT OF THE GULF TOMORROW. WINDS AT 850MB ARE TO VEER GRADUALLY TO BECOME EAST-SOUTHEAST BY THURSDAY MORNING; WHILE SURFACE WINDS ARE TO BECOME EASTERLY AT THAT TIME. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO BECOME WEAKLY CONVERGENT TOMORROW, AS THE UPPER RIDGE FLATTENS OUT OVER OUR AREA AND AN UPPER HIGH CENTER FORMS SOUTH OF EL SALVADOR. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ORE THATN ISOLATED OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. FOR THE OUTLOOK PERIOD, THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE HIGHER MOISTURE WILL SPREAD COUNTRYWIDE THEN DECREASE DURING THURSDAY. 

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH THURSDAY. THE GFS FORECASTS RAINFALL OF UP TO 0.25 INS/6HRS OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THE NAM GOES FOR LITTLE RAINFALL TONIGHT, THEN UP TO 1.00 INS/6HRS OVER THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING. THE NVG ALSO GOES FOR LITTLE OR NO RAIN TONIGHT, THEN UP TO 0.25 INS/6HRS OVER S'RN COASTAL AREAS TOMORROW. 

FORECAST:  PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN DISTRICTS.

OUTLOOK:  CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOST AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING, WITH SHOWERS BECOMING ISOLATED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

MARINE:  EAST-NORTHEAST 10-20KTS; MODERATE; 4-6FT.

FCSTR:  RUDON