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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: FRIDAY 29 MAY 2015 (AFTERNOON)

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. ITS POSSIBLE THAT ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTED EXTREME SOUTHERN BELIZE. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS  MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

AT UPPER-LEVELS, A W/NW'LY FLOW PREVAILS AS A BROAD TROUGH AFFECTS THE CARIBBEAN. CONDITIONS ARE STABLE.   AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS NE'LY. AT 850MB CONDITIONS ARE MOIST OVER THE NORTH AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE 06Z ANALYSIS SHOWS THROUGHING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BASIN SUPPORTING A LIGHT  E/NE'LY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN, DUE TO A 1015MB LOW CENTER EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. THE 12Z SOUNDING DATA IS UNAVAILABLE.

FRI AFTERNOON TO SAT MIDDAY:

NO MAJOR CHANGES TAKE PLACE AT THE UPPER LEVELS, WHILE CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AT 700MB AND THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE NORTHEAST. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVEL FLUCTUATES, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE. AT THE SURFACE, AN EASTERLY FLOW WILL PERSIST, WHILE GFS SHOW NO RAINFALL. NAM SHOWS .01IN-.10IN/3HRS. 

SAT AND SAT NIGHT:

THE FLOW ALOFT BACKS UP TO W/SW AS ANOTHER TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE  ENE. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVEL FLUCTUATES, WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE SE. AT THE SURFACE, THE  FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE EAST . GFS AND NAM SHOW .01IN-.10IN/3HRS.

FORECAST: SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW MORNING AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK:  (SAT AFTERNOON TO  SUN MIDDAY) ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS EXPECTED.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST  5-15 KT ; SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES: 3-4 FT.  ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FORECASTER:  Wellington