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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: THURSDAY 5TH MAY 2016 (AFTERNOON)

SAT IMAGERY (VIZ) AND RADAR OBS SHOWED SKIES CONTINUED CLOUDY THIS MORNING (LAYERED LOW CLOUDS) WITH MOST SHOWERS CONFINED ALONG AND BEYOND THE BARRIER REEF. WV IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ACROSS THE GLFMEX EXPANDING SOUTH ACROSS YUCATAN - BZE - W'RN CUBA AND THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN. SOME MOISTURE CONTINUED ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA EXTENDING NE'WARDS ACROSS E'RN CUBA - HISPANIOLA AND THE BAHAMAS. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (16Z) STILL SHOWED HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE OF 50-60mm OVER COASTAL WATERS OF YUCATAN - BZE - HONDURAS AND CUBA. SKEW-T (12Z) SOUNDING SHOWED SOME MOISTURE TO NEAR 750hPa THEN RELATIVELY DRY THRU THE MID LVLS WITH PW 53.54mm, KI 31.20, LIFTED -3.85, SHOW -2.55 AND CAPE 644.0j/kg.  

 

SFC ANALYSIS (HPC - 05 / 12Z) HAD THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW'RN BAHAMAS - CENTRAL CUBA TO THE GLF OF HONDURAS / AMATIQUE BAY. AND ALONG E'RN YUCATAN - BZE. A CONTINENTAL HIGH (1017hPa) WAS OFFSHORE SE'RN TEXAS / NE'RN MEXICO. A DEEP LAYER N'LY - NW'LY FLOW PREVAILS OVER OUR AREA WITH A BROAD RIDGE PATTERN DOMINATING TO THE WEST ACROSS MEXICO - E'RN PACIFIC AND CENTRAL AMERICA WITH BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN AT LOW- MID LVLS AND OVER THE E'RN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AT UPPER LVLS. THE LOW LVL PATTERN WAS CONVERGENT TO THE SOUTH DUE TO THE PROXOMITY OF THE FRONT WHILE AT UPPER LVLS THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL - WEAKLY CONVERGENT. 

 

THE GFS (00Z / 12Z) MODEL RUNS FCST THE WEAK CONTINENTAL HIGH TO MOVE SLOWLY ACROSS THE N'RN - NE'RN GLFMEX DURING THE 3-DAY CYCLE. THE PRIMARY COLD FRONT IS FCST TO CONTINUE SE'WARDS TO THE SE'RN NICARAGUA / COSTA RICA AREA THRU SAT WHILE ANOTHER SECONDARY FRONT / COOL SURGE IS TO DROP SE'WARDS ACROSS THE GLFMEX THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS IS EXPECTED TO RE-ENFORCE / MAINTAIN THE COOL CONDITIONS THRU THE WEEK-END. A LIGHT - MOD N'LY - NW'LY FLOW IS TO PREVAIL AT THE SFC - LOW LVLS DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE GFS IS NOW SUGGESTING A MODERATELY CONVERGENT LOW LVL PATTERN THIS CYCLE WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO PEAK NEAR 700hPa TODAY THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW TO NEAR 850-800hPa THRU SAT.. AT MID - UPPER LVLS THE RIDGE PATTERN IS TO PERSIST AND SUPPORT / MAINTAIN A CONVERGENT NW'LY FLOW THRU TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN BECMG WEAKLY DIVERGENT AFTER. SOME POST FRONTAL ACTIVITY IS STILL EXPECTED OVER THE SEA AND SOUTH COAST THRU THE EARLY EXTND PERIOD DUE TO THE PROXOMITY OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE AS THE ATMOSPHERE ALSO DRIES OUT FROM MID-UPPER LVLS.  

 

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SOME RAINFALL ACTIVITY IN THE SOUTH THRU TONIGHT. THE GFS GOES FOR AMTS OF .25-.75ins/6hrs THRU TONIGHT WHILE THE NAM GOES FOR .5-1.5ins/6hrs DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THE NVG INCREASES TO A MAX OF 10-14mm/12hrs TONIGHT THEN DECREASING TOMORROW.   

FORECAST: CLOUDY AND COOL WITH A FEW SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE SEA AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS.  

OUTLOOK: FOR FRI. AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MIDDAY SAT. IS FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.  

MARINE:  WINDS: NORTH 10-20 KTS.; SEAS: CHOPPY - MODERATE.; WAVES: 3-6 FT. 

FORECASTER:    M.  GENTLE.