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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE:  FRIDAY 31ST JULY 2015 (AFTERNOON)

RADAR AND SAT PIC SHOWS BELIZE AND HER COASTAL WATERS TO BE FREE OF SHOWERS AND ANY SIGNIFICANT CLOUDS.. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 12Z (NHC) SHOWED THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING TO A 10168MB HIGH SOUTH OF W'RN CUBA THEN TO A SIMILAR HIGH OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO. THE HIGH OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED A MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 19N AND WAS MOVING WEST AT 15-20 KNOTS. THE EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUED AT LOW LEVELS; WHILE AT UPPER LEVELS A LOW OVER NE BAHAMAS HAS A  EXTENDED A TROF THRU TO BAY OF HONDURAS AND TO EAST COAST OF BELIZE.THE UPPER PATTERN IS NUETRAL  

THE GFS FORECASTS MOISTURE LEVEL WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN LOW FOR THE NEXT 24HRS, THEN INCREASE MODERATELY SATURDAY  NIGHT, AS THE TROPICAL WAVE APPROACHES OUR AREA. THE TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BELIZE BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND CROSS THE COUNTRY EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE UPPER LEVELS WILL BECOME DIVERGENT AS THE TROUGH PUSHES TO THE SOUTHWEST GIVING US A SOUTHWEST DIVERGENT FLOW. 

THE NAM GENERALLY AGREES WITH THE GFS THROGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MODELS GO FOR LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL TODAY, WITH THE GFS SHOWING A SLIGHT INCREASE (LIKELY SOUTH) TONIGHT , WITH THE NAM CONTINING WITH LITTLE OR NO RAIN. FOR TOMORROW, THE GFS AND NAM GO FOR LITTLE RAINFALL; WITH THE NAM SHOWING LIGHT AMOUNTS TOMORROW NIGHT, AND THE GFS GOING FOR UP TO 1.50 INS/6HRS OVER COASTAL AREAS. THE WRF AGRES WITH THE GFS AND GOES FOR 15-25MM/3HRS OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. 

FORECAST:  MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS, ALONG WITH THE CHANCE OF A THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING INLAND THIS AFTERNOON OR IN THE EXTREME SOUTH TONIGHT.

 

OUTLOOK:  CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR ON SATURDAY, THEN A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTOERMS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST  SATURDAY NIGHT THRU TO SUNDAY. 

MARINE:  EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-20KTS; CHOPPY; 3-4FT.

FORECASTER:  CUMBERBATCH