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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: MONDAY 27TH JUNE 2016 (AFTERNOON)

SKIES WERE  CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED  THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THE COUNTRY.  THUNDERSHOWERS WERE  OBSERVED IN THE VICINITY OF THE AIRPORT SINCE MORNING. WATER  VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MOIST AIR IN THE GULF OF MEXICO, ENTIRE MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA, THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE CARIBBEAN  BASIN.

AT UPPER LEVELS A  SE'LY/SW'LY FLOW PREVAILS AS A LOW CENTER SITS NW OF BELIZE.  THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY UNSTABLE. AT 700MB CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY E'LY. AT 850MB CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. THE 12Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED A TROICAL WAVE NEAR 84W. A WEAK TROUGH WAS ALSO OBSERVED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. RIDGING SUPPORTED A MODERATE E-NE'LY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN, AS A HIGH CENTER WAS OBSERVED JUST WEST OF FLORIDA. 

DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS, THE FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WILL PERSIST GENERALLY FROM THE  S-SW AS THE LOW CENTER MOVES NORTH AND WEST OF BELIZE.  THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.  AT THE  LOWER LEVELS, 700MB, MOISTURE DECREASES AND DRIES OUT BY THE END OF THE 48 HRS PERIOD. THE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE EAST.  AT 850MB,  MOISTURE FLUCTUATES,WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE  EAST. AT THE  SURFACE THE WIND WILL PERSIST FROM THE E AND NORTHEAST THROUGH OUT THE PERIOD.  GFS SHOWS  .01IN-.75IN/3HRS DURING THE 24HRS PERIOD, THEN DECREASES RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO A MIN OF .01IN/3HRS DURING TUES. NAM SHOWS  .01IN-.25IN/3HRS  DURING THE 24HRS PERIOD ACROSS THE COUBNTRY. NAM SHOWS SIMILAR AMOUNTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST: CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK: BETWEEN TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY MIDDAY IS FOR SKIES TO BE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST AT 10-20 KT ;SEAS: MODERATE, WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS; WAVES:3-5 FT;  A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECASTER: Wellington