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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: FRIDAY 29TH JULY 2016 (AFTERNOON)

SKIES WERE  CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED QUITE A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AROUND THE COUNTRY. WATER  VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MOIST AIR OVER  MEXICO, OVER THE GULF, OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

AT UPPER LEVELS AN  E'LY  FLOW PREVAILS  AS A RIDGE DOMINTES THE AREA. THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY NEUTRAL. AT 700MB CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT 850MB CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. THE 12Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE SMACK OVER BELIZE. ANOTHER WAS OBSERVED NEAR 56W AND NEAR 66W. A 1017MB HIGH CENTER WAS OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO, WHILE  RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH SUPPORTED A MODERATE E-SE'LY FLOW OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. 

DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS, THE FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY FROM THE EAST AS A TROUGH MOVES SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA. THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.  AT THE  LOWER LEVELS, 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WHILE THE FLOW  PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST.  AT 850MB,  MOISTURE FLUCTUATES,WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE  EAST. AT THE SURFACE  WINDS WILL PERSIST MAINLY FROM THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24HRS-48HRS.  GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS .01IN-.50IN/3HRS DURING THE 24HRS PERIOD WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING OVER THE  COAST THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT. RAINFALL AMOUNTS DECREASE TO .25IN/3HRS DURING THE 48HRS PERIOD AND OVER THE SOUTH SAT. NIGHT  NAMS SHOWS 0-.10IN/3HRS DURING THE 24-48HRS PERIOD

FORECAST: CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAINLY IN THE SOUTH TONIGHT. MOST FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ON SATURDAY MORNING

OUTLOOK: MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON, BUT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLSTED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP IN THE SOUTH SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN OVER MOST AREAS ON SUNDAY.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST AT 10-20 KNOTS WITH OCCNL HIGHER GUSTS ;SEAS:MODERATE BECMG ROUGH AT TIMES*SMALL CRAFT CAUTION*; WAVES:4-6 FT; A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. 

FORECASTER: Wellington