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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: THURSDAY 23RD OCTOBER 2014 (MORNING) 

SKIES WERE CLOUDY LAST NIGHT. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE NORTHERN DISTRICTS AT FIRST, THEN OVR THE MAYA MOUNTAINS AND PARTS OF THE TOLEDO DISTRICT.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ALOFT .

AT UPPER-LEVELS, A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN, CENTRAL AMERICA , SUPPORTS A NW'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND A SE'LY FLOW AT 300MB. CONDITIONS ARE UNSTABLE.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE VERY MOIST, ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND THE FLOW IS SW'LY. AT 850MB, A MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EXIST. AT THE SURFACE, THE 06Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED A 1004MB LOW OVER YUCATAN. A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT SUPPORTED LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS, WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PLACED NEAR 60W. THE 12Z SOUNDING DATA IS UNAVAILABLE.

THURS AND THURS NIGHT:

THE RIDGE ALOFT  WILL SUPPORT  A S'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND  300MB. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY UNSTABLE.  AT 700MB, MOISTURE WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE SOUTH.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH AROUND THE COUNTRY, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE.  AT THE SURFACE, A  LIGHT  SOUTH/SOUTHWEST'ERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP. GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS .01IN-.25IN/3HRS. NAM SHOWS SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

FRI AND FRI NIGHT:

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A NE'LY  FLOW AT 200MB AND A NW'LY FLOW AT 300MB, WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSTABLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN VERY HIGH,   WHILE  THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE EAST. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, WHILE THE  FLOW BACKS UP TO THE  NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, MOIST CONDITIONS PERSIST. GFS SHOWS .0IN-.25IN/3HRS. NAM SHOWS UP TO 1.0IN/3HRS.

FORECAST:  MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING. SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE OVER INLAND AND NORTHEN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN OVER MOST AREAS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: FOR FRI AND FRI NIGHT: CLOUDY SKIES WITH SOME SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS.

MARINE:  WINDS: W/SW  5-10KT  SEAS: SLIGHT  TO LIGHT CHOP.  WAVES:1-3 FT. ; GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTROMS THIS MORNING, INCREASING OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON.

FORECASTER: Wellington