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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SATURDAY 22ND NOVEMBER 2014 (MIDDAY) 

MOSTLY SUNNY WX PREVAILED ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING.

SATPIX IMAGERY (VIS) DISPLAYED MOSTLY CUMULI FORM CLOUDS OVER MAINLAND BZE. A FEW SHWRS APPEARED OVER  SRN WATERS NEAR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS. CIRRUS CLOUDS WERE ALSO NOTED  RIDING THE SW'LY WINDS AT UPPER LVLS. MOST OF THE MOISTURE NOTED ON WATER VAPOUR  IMAGERY  OVER SRN MEXICO,GUATEMALA AND BZE WERE CIRRUS CLOUDS ORIGINATING FROM CONVECTION OVER THE EPAC. EXTENISVE DRY AIR CANOPY COVERED THE CNTRL GULFOMEX.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 22-12Z DEFINED A COLD FRONT  ACROSS THE ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE BAHAMAS WHERE THE FRONT WAS STNRY TO THE FLORIDA STRAITS.  WEAK RIDGING FROM A SFC HIGH CNTRD ON THE COAST OF NORTH CAROLINA WAS OCCURRING BEHIND OVER THE CNTRL  GULFOMEX. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WAS SUPPORTING AN E'LY SFC FLOW.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 12Z DATA WAS SUGGESTING THE   EMERGENCE OF THE CONTINENTAL  HIGH CURRENTLY ON THE US EASTERN COAST FURTHER EAST OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN LATER TODAY. THE SE'LY RETURN FLOW WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP IN SYNC WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE'S TRANSITION.LOOK FOR A  RATHER GUSTY SE'LY SFC FLOW OVER BZE AND COASTAL WATERS DURING SUNDAY.WX CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE SUNNY.

 AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa).AN ELONGATED HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE FROM NEAR BZE ACROSS  CNTRL CUBA AND  THE  TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL CONTINE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED IN LOCATION AND INTENSITY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND.

AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) AN UPPER HIGH CNTRD OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WAS INFLUENCING THE SW'LY FLOW OVER BZE.NO CHANGE TO THE SW'LY FLOW IS ANTICIPATED THROUGH  TO SUNDAY.PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIVERGENT.

PRECIP MODEL FCST (GFS) IS SUGGESTING LIMITED RAINFALL FOR BZE AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY.MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL FAVOUR MOSTLY ISOLATED SHOWERS. THE NAM SOLUTION  SHOWS A SIMILAR TREND WITH RAINFALL FOR THE WEEKEND. 

FORECAST:   SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW; PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.  

OUTLOOK:    (MONDAY MIDDAY):MAINLY GOOD WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

MARINE:  WINDS: E/SE 5-15 KTS.; SEAS:  CHOPPY.; WAVES: 2-4 FT.

FORECASTER:     F.Tench Jr.