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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: WEDNESDAY 16 APRIL 2014 (EVENING)  

SKIES WERE CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR LOOP SHOWED SHOWERS/ ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTH, OVER ORANGE WALK TOWN AND SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTH, OVER THE MAYA MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY MOIST CONDITIONS ALOFT.

AT 200MB AND 300MB TROUGHING OVER CENTRAL MEXICO  SUPPORTS A SW'LY FLOW. AT 700MB, RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN CARIBBENA SUPPORTS A DRY NE'LY FLOW. AT 850MB, MOISTURE AFFECTS INLAND AREAS AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE SE. AT THE SURFACE THE 18Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A STATIONARY FRONT JUST OVER NORTHERN YUCATAN.  RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH SUPPORTS A NORTHEASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN  AND A WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS BELIZE. A WEAK TROUGH WAS PLACED JUST EAST OF BELIZE. 

WED NIGHT AND THURS:

DURING THIS CYCLE AT UPPER-LEVELS, THE  SW'LY FLOW PERSIST AT 200MB AND VEERS TO THE EAST AT 300MB. AT 700MB  CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SE. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS FLUCTUATES, INCREASING THEN DECREASING ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE STATIONARY FRONT DRIFTS BACK INTO THE GULF. THE FLOW VEERS TO THE EAST. GFS SHOWS .0IN/3HRS OVER THE NORTH COAST FOR MOST OF THE CYCLE. NAM SHOWS SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

THURS NIGHT AND FRI:

DURING THIS CYCLE THE FLOW AT UPPER -LEVELS REMAINS FROM THE  SOUTHWEST AT 200MB AND VEERS FURTHER TO THE NORTHWEST AT 300MB AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST. AT 700MB THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE EAST. CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD SURGE MOVES OFF FROM THE GULF COAST OF USA AND PUSHES A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD, REACHING NORTHERN YUCATAN AT THE END OF THE CYCLE.  THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE NE BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. GFS SHOWS NO RAINFALL MOST OF THURS NIGHT, THEN INCREASES AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST ON THURS MORNING UP TO .10IN/3HRS. THIS AMOUNT SHIFTS TO INLAND AREAS FRI. AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS 0-.01IN/3HRS DURING TH IS CYCLE.

FORECAST: CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND ALONG THE COAST..

EXTENDED: CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE: WINDS: EAST AT 5-15 KNOTS. SEAS: CHOPPY. WAVES:2-4FT. A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTH.

FORECASTER: Wellington