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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE: FRIDAY 24TH FEBRUARY 2017 (MORNING)

SKIES WERE CLEAR ACROSS THE COUNTRY LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.  RADAR IMAGES SHOWED SIGNS OF SHOWERS OVER OFFSHORE AREAS IN THE SOUTH.WV LOOP CONDITINUE TO SHOW DRY AIR OVER THE REGION; THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE CARIBBEAN BASIN EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN EASTER CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST PWAT IMAGE (10Z) SHOWED VALUES OF 15-25MM NEAR BZE WHICH WAS SUPPORTED BY THE 12Z SOUNDING WHICH HAD A PWAT VALUE OF 15MM AND A VERY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT. THE SURFACE ANALYSIS (24 / 06Z) NHC SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE S'RN UNITED STATES NEAR LOUSIANNA AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM JUST TO THE EAST OF FLORIDA ASSOCIATED AN OCCLUDED FRONT IN THE NORTH ATL WHICH EXTENDED TO E'RN CUBA. THIS FRONT CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A NW'LT WIND COMPONENT OVER BZE.A TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER HISPANIOLA.  

 

THE GFS FCST  RIDGING TO THE WEST OF BZE AND AN UPP LEV TROUGH SUPPORTED NW'LY WINDS AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BECOMING SW'LY IN 24-48 HRS. THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WERE DRY AND TROUGHING OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED A W'LY FLOW. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS WERE DRY AND TROUGHING SUPPORTED A NW'LY FLOW FOR THE NEXT 12 HRS BEFORE BACKING TO THE SW AND THEN VEER TO THE NE IN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. 

 

THE MODELS (GFS, WRF AND NAM) GENEARALLY AGREE WITH THE SURFACE CHANGES AND GOES FOR LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL EXCEPT FOR NAM WHICH GOES FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS IN THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE IS EXPECTED IN 72 HRS. 

FORECAST: MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

OUTLOOK: FOR SAT AND SAT NIGHT IS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS.  

MARINE: WINDS: E-SE 5-15 KT; SEAS: LIGHT CHOP; WAVES:1-2 FT. 

FCSTR: M. Gentle / S. Young