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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: SUNDAY 14 FEBRUARY 2016 (MORNING)

SAT IMAGERY (IR) SHOWED SKIES CONTINUED CLOUDY (LAYERED LOW CLOUDS) ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THE NIGHT, WHILE RADAR OBS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED THE CENTRAL AND S'RN COASTAL AREAS AND CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. WV IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR ACROSS S'RN MEXICO - CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WHILE SOME MOISTURE FLOWED ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO / W'RN GLF. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (10Z) SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE OF 40-50mm OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHES VALUES ALONG S'RN BZE / N'RN HONDURAS. SKEW-T (12Z) WAS N/A.  

SFC ANALYSIS (HPC - 14 / 06) SHOWED HIGH PRESSURES DOMINATING THE E'RN USA - GLFMEX WITH BROAD TROUGHING FROM NEAR JAMAICA THRU THE WINDWARD PASSAGE. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS MOD / GUSTY NNE'LY FOW OVER OUR AREA. A COLD FRONT WAS ACROSS CENTRAL BAHAMAS W'RN CUBA BECMG STATIONARY AND TURNING NW'WARDS TO NEAR THE TEXAS / LOUISIANA BORDER. THE FLOW CONTINUED ENE'LY AT 850hPa AND E'LY AT 700hPa WITH A HIGH OVER THE GLFMEX. AT MID - UPPER LVLS RIDGING FROM THE WEST EXTENDS OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN BOUNDED BY A TROUGH TO THE EAST OF OUR AREA. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS A NW'LY FLOW AND THE PATTERN WAS WEAKLY CONVERGENT.  

 

THE GFS (00Z) MODEL RUN FCST THE CONTINENTAL HIGH TO RELOCATE TO THE E'RN USA TODAY AND OUT OVER THE NW'RN ATLANTIC TOMORROW. THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL NORTH OF OUR AREA DURING THE FCST PERIOD THEN RETROGRESS OVER THE N'RN GLF. THE SFC - LOW LVL RIDGE / TROUGH PATTERN IS TO SUPPORT A NE'LY FLOW TODAY THEN GRADUALLY VEER TO E'LY AT THE SFC - 850hPa TONIGHT AND ESE'LY BY MON. A SE'LY FLOW IS TO DEVELOP AT 700hPa TODAY. THE GFS FCST A CONVERGENT LOW LVL PATTERN WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE THRU THE 600hPa LAYER THRU TONIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING. AT MID - UPPER LVLS ONE TROUGH IS TO CONTINUE E'WARDS WITH THE RIDGE OVER OUR ARE TO GRADUALLY FLATTEN AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS E'WARDS TO THE E'RN USA BY THE END OF THE 3-DAY CYCLE. THE NW'LY FLOW THRU MID-CYCLE IS TO BECMG MORE ZONAL AND SW'LY AFTER AND THE WEAKLY CONVERGENT PATTERN IS TO BECMG WEAKLY DIVERGENT LATER TODAY. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN SUGGEST SHOWERS CONTINUE LIKELY FOR THE S'RN AREAS TODAY DUE TO THE NE'LY FLOW. AS THE FLOW VEERS TO EAST AND SOUTHEAST SHOWERS ARE MORE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND N'RN AREAS WHILE THE ACTIVITY IS EXOPECTED TO DECREASE.     

THE GFS / NAM FCST RR AMTS OF .25-.5ins/6hrs THRU EARLY TOMORROW WHILE NVG GOES FOR 6-10mm/12hrs THRU TONIGHT THEN DECREASING TOMORROW. WRF GOES FOR TRACE AMTS THIS MORNING THEN 5-10mm/3hrs LATER TODAY THRU MON. MORNING  

FORECAST: CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS.

OUTLOOK:  CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY NORTHERN AREAS MON. MORNING THEN BECOMING GENERALLY ISOLATED MON. AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. 

MARINE: WINDS: N-NE 10-20 KTS. WITH OCCNL HIGHER GUSTS.; SEAS: MODERATE - LOCALLY ROUGGH.; WAVES:4-7 FT.; SMALL CRAFT CAUTION. 

FORECASTER:     M.  GENTLE.