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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: SUNDAY 29TH MAY 2016 (MORNING)

SAT IMAGERY (IR), SFC AND RADAR OBS SHOWED SHOWERS OCCURRED MOSTLY ALONG THE SARSTOON RIVER / S'RN BORDER AREAS DURING THE NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. WV IMAGERY SHOWED SOME DRY AIR ACROSS THE CENTRAL GLF - YUCATAN - BZE AND THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN WHILE MOISTURE AFFECTED MEXICO - THE W'RN GLF - CENTRAL AMERICA - THE CENTRAL AND E'RN CARIBBEAN. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (12Z) SHOWED MOD AMTS OF AVAILABLE MOISTURE OF 40-50mm OVER THE AREA. SKEW-T (12Z) SOUNDING SHOWED A RATHER DRY AND MARGINALLY STABLE ENVIRON WITH PW 47.24mm, KI 25.30, SHOW 1.13, LIFTED -4.30 AND CAPE 2363j/kg.  

 

SFC ANALYSIS (HPC - 29 / 06Z) SHOWED A THERMAL TROUGH / HEAT LOW (1004hPa) ACROSS TEXAS - MEXICO CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE E'RN PACIFIC. A WEAK HIGH WAS ALONG THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND TD BONNIE (1006hPa) ALONG THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST. A LIGHT E'LY - ENE'LY FLOW PREVAILED AT THE SFC - 850hPa LVLS BECMG NE'LY AT 700hPa AS A HIGH CENTERS OVER THE GLF AND BROAD TROUGHING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN BETWEEN CUBA - HONDURAS. AT MID - UPPER LVLS A NW'LY FLOW PREVAILS AS A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDS SE'WARDS FROM ACROSS THE SE'RN USA - E'RN CUBA TO NW'RN SOUTH AMERICA WITH A PERSISTENT RIDGE PATTRN TO THE WEST OF OUR AREA. THE UPPER LVL PATTERN WAS WEAKLY CONVERGENT / SUBSIDENT OVER OUR AREA INCREASING TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE BAY ISLANDS.  

 

THE GFS (00Z) MODEL RUN FCST LOW SFC PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE DOMINATING OVER E'RN MEXICO AND THE W'RN GLF WHILE THE DEVELOPING LOW ASSOCIATED WITH TD BONNIE WILL INDUCE A HIGH / RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL GLF COAST EARLY THIS CYCLE AS IT MEANDERS ALONG THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THE SFC - 850hPa FLOW WILL CONTINUE E'LY AND ENE'LY DURING THIS 3-DAY CYCLE. AT 700hPa THE FLOW IS TO BE PRIMARILY ENE'LY AS THE BROAD TROUGHING DRIFTS W'WARDS TOWARDS YUCATAN - BZE. THE PATTERN CONTINUES TO BE DIURNALLY CONVERGENT BUT WITH SHALLOW LOW LVL MOISTURE CONFINED TO NEAR 800-850hPa. AT MID - UPPER LVLS THE STRONG RIDGE / TROUGH PATTERN IS TO PERSIST THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS AND MAINTAIN THE NW'LY FLOW AND STRONG CONVERGENCE THRU TONIGHT WEAKENING TOMORROW AND BECMG WEAKLY DIVERGENT DURING DAY THREE.  

THE GFS / WRF CONTINUES TO SUGGEST SMALL RR AMTS OF .25ins/6hrs DIURNALLY FOR THE SOUTH COAST OVER-NIGHT AND FOR THE MOUNTAINS AFTERNOON, WITH VERY LITTLE RAINFALL ELSEWHERE. THE OTHER MODELS (NAM / NVG) GENERALLY AGREE WITH ONLY TRACE AMTS OF RAINFALL THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. 

FORECAST:  MOSTLY SUNNY AND WARM TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK:  FOR MON. AND MON. NIGHT IS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. 

MARINE:  WINDS:  EAST 5-15 KNOTS.; SEAS: CHOPPY.; WAVES: 3-5 FT. 

FORECASTER:    M.  GENTLE.