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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: THURSDAY 30TH OCTOBER 2014 (EVENING)

SOME SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE INTERIOR THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO S'RN COASTAL AREAS. SINCE NIGHTFALL, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE CONTINUED OVER EXTREME S'RN COASTAL AREAS, WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z (NHC) SHOWED A COLD FRONT OVER CNTRL FLORIDA TO SOUTH TEXAS AND A RIDGE OVER THE N'RN AND W'RN GULF OF MEXICO. A DISSIPATING 1009MB LOW WAS EAST OF THE BAHAMAS AND ANOTHER DISSIPATING LOW WAS NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN SEA ALONG 74W. A BROAD TROF WAS OVER THE W'RN CARIBEAN SEA, AND A NORTHEAST FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBEAN AND YUCATAN/ BELIZE. AT HIGH LEVELS, A SHALLOW TROF TO THE WEST AND A DIFFLUENT PATTERN OVER AND EAST OF BELIZE. THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH, WITH THE MIMIC TPW IMAGES SHOWING PWAT AROUND 55MM.

THE GFS FORECASTS HIGH PRESSURES TO BUILD OVER THE N'RN AND W'RN GULF OF MEXICO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AND PUSH THE COLD FRONT TO N'RN BELIZE BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE BUILDING RISGE OVER THE GULF/ S'RN MEXICO AND THE TROF OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN SEA WILL RESULT IN BACKING OF THE LOW LEVEL WINDS TO NORTHERLY BY TOMORROW MORNING. SURFACE CONVERGENCE/ COASTAL CONVERGENCE IS TO ALSO INCREASE TOMORROW. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO CONTINUE GENERALLY DIVERGENT, AS THE POLAR TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO AND COMES INTO PHASE/ LINE WITH THE SHORT WAVE TROF PRESENTLY TO THE WEST. THE MOISTURE IS TO DROP OFF A LITTLE OVER THE NORTH AND CNTRL AREAS TOMORROW, BUT REMIAN HIGH OVER THE SOUTH. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND SOUTH THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT, DECREASING FROM THE NORTH DURING SATURDAY.

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS AND NVG GO FOR RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.75 INS/6HRS OVER THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THEN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. ON SATURDAY THE GFS AND NAM GO FOR 0.25 INS/6HRS OVER THE COAST AT FIRST, THEN THE SOUTH IN THE AFTERNOON. THE NAM GOES FOR A MAX OF UP TO 1.50 INS/6HRS OVER THE MAINLAND SOUTH TONIGHT AND ANOTHER OF 1.00 INS/6HRS TOMORROW NIGHT. OTHERWISE THE NAM GOES FOR RAINFALL OF 0.25-0.50 INS/6HRS. 

FORECAST:  CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER THE COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THEN MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN DISTRICTS AFTER MID-MORNING TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK:  MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE COAST AND IN THE SOUTH. 

MARINE:  NORTH-NORTHEAST 5-15KTS. CHOPPY. 2-3FT. 

FCSTR:  RUDON