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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE: MONDAY 16TH JANUARY 2017 (AFTERNOON)

RADAR AND SAT INDICATE THAT SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TIMES ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING AND THAT A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS AFFECTED MAINLY CENTRAL AREAS. WV IMAGERY CONTINUE TO SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID-UPPER LEVS OVER BZE AND MOST OF THE REGION. LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS HAD PWAT OF AROUND 40MM NEAR THE COUNTRY.

SFC ANALYSIS (12Z) SHOWED THE REGION BEING DOMINATED BY THE ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE. THIS FEATURE WAS SUPPORING A MOD E'LY SFC FLOW OVER BZE. THE FLOW AT 850-700HPA WAS ESE'LY WHILE AT THE UPPER LEVS IT WAS WNW'LY AT 300HPA AND WSW'LY AT 200HPA. AT 300HPA THE FLOW WAS BEING DOMINATED BY A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WITH AXIS WEST OF THE COUNTRY WHILE AT 200HPA THE RIDGE AXIS WAS EAST OF THE COUNTRY AND BROAD TROF WAS TO THE WEST. THE PATTERN ALOFT WAS NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT.

THE GFS (12Z RUN) FCST THE SFC FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY E'LY THIS AFTERNOON AND MOST OF TONIGHT AND THE GRADUALLY VEER TO THE E-SE EARLY TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST PERIOD. THIS SHIFT IN WINDS OCCUR AS THE ATLC RIDGE PULLS OFF FURTHER TO THE EAST AND A COLD FRONT AND FRONTAL LOW APPROACH THE NW GLF OF MEX. AS THE FLOW SHIFTS MORE TO THE ESE IT WILL BECOME DRIER AND THEREFORE A GRADUAL DECREASE IN SHOWERS IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AT THE UPPER LEVS, THE FLOW WILL BE WSW'LY AS THE RIDGE AXIS REMAIN EAST OF THE COUNTRY AND BROAD TROFING DOMINATE THE AREA WEST OF THE COUNTRY. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT AT FIRST AND THEN CONVERGENCE IS FCST TO INCREASE AT THE 200HPA LEVEL AFTER 24 HOURS.

THE MODELS SHOW A GRADUAL DECREASE IN RAINFALL. HOWEVER, THEY SHOW SOME RAINFALL AFFECTING THE COUNTRY DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE NAM SHOWS THE HIGHER AMOUNTS OCCURING OVER THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT HAPPENING MORE OVER COASTAL AREAS. 

FORECAST:  SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED, EXCEPT ALONG SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WHERE A FEW MORE SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK:  FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MIDDAY ON WEDNESDAY IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

MARINE: WINDS: EAST   10-20 KNOTS  ; SEAS: MODRATE  ;WAVES: 4-6 FT. 

FCSTR: R. Gordon