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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: MONDAY 29TH JUNE 2015 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. NO  SHOWERS OR   THUNDERSTORMS WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE COUNTRY.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS AT THE UPPER LEVELS.

AT UPPER-LEVELS, A BROAD TROUGH SITS OVER THE CARIBBEAN BASIN, WHILE A RIDGE SITS OVER MEXICO AND THE GULF. THESE FEATURES SUPPORT A NEUTRAL NW'LY FLOW. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS SE'LY. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST, WHILE THE FLOW IS SE'LY. AT THE SURFACE, THE 18Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK TROUGH OVER YUCATAN. TROPICAL WAVES WERE PLACED NEAR 91W, 84W, 62W AND 55W. RIDGING SUPPORTS AN E'LY FLOW.

MON NIGHT AND TUES:

THE FEATURES ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN THE GENERAL AREA ND THE NW'LY FLOW WILL PERSIST.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY, WHILE THE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHEAST . AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS FLUCTUATE, WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE SOUTH-EAST. AT THE SURFACE, MOISTURE LEVELS DECREASE, WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM  THE EAST. GFS SHOWS 0.0IN-.01IN/3HRS INITIALLY, THEN DRIES OUT. NAM SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

TUES NIGHT AND WED:

NO MAJOR CHANGES OCCUR ALOFT. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP  TO THE EAST.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS FLUCTUATE, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN LOW, WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE EAST.  GFS AND  NAM SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. 

FORECAST: CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SLIGHTLY MORE WILL OCCUR OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK:   PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ON TUES NIGHT AND WED.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST  15-25 KT ;  SEAS:ROUGH; WAVES:4-6 FT.   ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS; SLIGHTLY MORE OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH.

FORECASTER:  Wellington