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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:   SATURDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2014 (MIDDAY)

GENERALLY CLOUDY,COOL AND WINDY WX PREVAILED ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING.

SATPIX IMAGERY (VIS) DISPLAYED NOSTLY FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS AND COLD AIR SC CLOUDS COURSING SOUTH  FROM THE YUCATAN PENINSULA TO BZE.SHWRS WERE CONFINED WELL OFFSHORE AND CLOSER TO THE COAST OF NRN HONDURAS. BZE RADAR IDENTFIED  THE MASS OF SHWRS ESE OF PUNTA GORDA TOWN. THE BOUNDARY OF THE SHWERS WAS ABOUT 180-185KM ESE OF PUNTA GORDA TOWN, WATER VAPOUR  IMAGERY MAINTAINED   MOISTURE  AND DEEP CONVECTION OVER HONDURAS AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN,DRY AIR  WAS OVER NRN YUCATAN PENINSULA AND DIPPING SOUTH SLOWLY.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 25-12Z DEFINED A COLD FRONT THAT EXTENDED SOUTHWEST ACROSS CNTRL CUBA FROM A SFC LOW NORTH OF THE BAHAMAS. THE STNRY FRONT WAS ALIGNED FROM CNTRL CUBA SW TO THE  GULFOHONDURAS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED SOUTH ACROSS THE WRN GULFOMEX TO  SRN MEXICO.THE RIDGE WAS PRODUCING A GUSTY NW'LY SFC FLOW ACROSS THE REGION AND BZE.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 12Z DATA WAS SUGGESTING  THE HIGH PRESURE RIDGE  ACROSS THE WRN GULFOMEX TO SRN MEXICO AND BZE PERSISTING THROUGH SUNDAY. SFC WINDS WILL REMAIN N'LY TO NW'LY THROUGH SUNDAY. SINCE THE AIR IS DRY SHWR DEVELOPEMENT WILL REMAIN VERY LIMITED AND CONFINED TO THE SEA AND SRN COASTAL BZE. 

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa).WINDS WILL REMAIN NE'LY AT THIS LVL THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) AN UPPER LVL HIGH CNTRD OVER CNTRL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN IS INFLUENCING THE  W'LY FLOW OVER BZE.THE FLOW HERE WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH THROUGH SUNDAY. PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIVERGENT.

PRECIP MODEL FCST (GFS) IS SUGGESTING VERY LIMITED RAINFAL FOR BZE AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE SAME WILL HOLD TRUE FOR MONDAY. NAM MODEL FCST COMPARES WELL WITH THE GFS ON THIS SCENARIO. 

FORECAST:  VARIABLY CLOUDY THIS AFTERNOON AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT;MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF RAIN WILL OCCUR MOSTLY IN THE SOUTH AND SOME COASTAL AREAS.  

OUTLOOK  (MONDAY):MOSTLY DRY AND COOL WEATHER.  

MARINE:  WINDS: N/NW 10-20 KTS. WITH HIGHER GUSTS.; SEAS:  MODERATE - ROUGH.; WAVES:  4-6 FT.; SMALL CRAFT CAUTION.

FCSTR:     F.Tench Jr.