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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SATURDAY 20TH SEPTEMBER 2014 (AFTERNOON)  

SKIES WERE MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE EXTREME COROZAL DISTRICT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS SOMEWHAT MOIST AIR ALOFT.

AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO , YUCATAN AND BELIZE SUPPORTS A N'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND A NW'LY FLOW AT 300MB. THE PATTERN IS  UNSTABLE. AT 700MB, RIDGING SUPPORTS A MOIST S'LY FLOW. AT 850MB, RIDGING SUPPORTS A RELATIVELY MOIST SE'LY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE THE 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING SUPPORTING A SE'LY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BELIZE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PLACED NEAR 73W AND 53W.

SAT AFTERNOON TO SUN MIDDAY:

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DRIFT WEST AND A TRAILING TROUGH WILL SUPPORT A NW'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND A W'LY FLOW AT 300MB AT THE END OF THE CYCLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE DECREASES LATER TONIGHT, BECOMING DRY BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTH. AT 850MB, MOISTURE FLUCTUATES, WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SE. AT THE SURFACE, THE SE'LY FLOW PERSIST. GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS 0.0IN-.25IN/3HRS WITH THE PEAK OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.  NAM SHOWS 0.0IN-.25IN/3HRS. 

SUN AFTERNOON TO MON MIDDAY:

THE TROUGH ALOFT LINGERS OVER THE GENERAL AREA MAINTAINING A NW'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND A SW'LY FLOW AT 300MB. THE PATTERN REMAINS UNSTABLE. AT 700MB A DRY SE'LY FLOW PREVAILS. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS  FLUCTUATES AND THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE SE. AT THE SURFACE, THE SE'LY FLOW PERSIST. THE TROPICAL WAVE MOVES CLOSER TO THE MAINLAND. GFS SHOWS .01IN-.25IN/3HRS WITH THE PEAK OVER INLAND AREAS SUN AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS .01IN -.10IN/3HRS.

FORECAST:  SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTERNOON AND TOMORROW MORNING AND CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE NORTH AND INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, THEN OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SIMILAR TREND OCCURS SUN. AFTERNOON AND THEN A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS SUN NIGHT AND MON MORNING.

MARINE:  WINDS: E/SE 5-15KT. SEAS: CHOPPY. WAVES: 2-4FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. 

FORECASTER: Wellington