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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:  WEDNESDAY 4TH MARCH 2015 (AFTERNOON)                  

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING.   WATER VAPOR LOOP  SHOWS  DRY AIR MOVING OVER BELIZE FROM THE  NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.

AT UPPER-LEVELS A DRY AND STABLE  NW'L/NE'LY FLOW PREVAILS AS A RIDGE DOMINATES SOUTHERN MEXICO AND  CENTRAL AMERICA.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE DRY  AND  A MODERATE SE'LY FLOW PREVAILS. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE RELATIVELY MOIST OVER INLAND AREAS  AND A MODERATE SE'LY FLOW PREVAILS. AT THE SURFACE THE 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING SUPPORTING A SE'LY FLOW OVER THE  CARIBBEAN. 

WED AFTERNOON TO THURS MIDDAY :

THE  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FORM THE NW  AND NORTHEAST. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE SE. AT 850MB, MOISTURE FLUCTUATES , WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS SE'LY. AT THE SURFACE, THE SE'LY FLOW PERSIST AS A COLD FRONT ENTERS THE GULF THURS MORNING. GFS SHOWS NO RAINFALL DURING THIS CYCLE. NAM SHOWS NO RIANFALL AT FIRST, THEN INCREASES AMOUNTS UP TO .25IN/3HRS OVER THE SOUTH THURS MORNING. 

THURS AFTERNOON TO FRI MIDDAY :

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK UP TO THE WEST AT 200MB BUT REMAINS FROM THE NE AT 300MB. AT 700MB, MOISTURE INCREASES, THEN DECREASES AGAIN BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE NE.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE  CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE, WHILE THE  FLOW BACKS UP TO  THE E/NE. AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHWARD, BECMG STATIONARY IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE FLOW BCKS UP TO E/NE. GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL DURING THIS CYCLE....01I-.50IN/3HRS, WHILE NAM SHOWS .01IN-.10IN/3HRS.

FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

OUTLOOK:  SIMILAR WEATEHR ON THURS AFTERNOON, BUT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE WILL SUPPORT A FEW SHOWERS THURS NIGHT AND FRI MORNING

MARINE: WINDS: E/SE 10-20 KT.  WAVES: 3-5 FT.  LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

ORECASTER:  Wellington