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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE:  THURSDAY 29TH SEPTEMBER 2016 (EVENING)

MAINLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z SHOWED A COLD FRONT OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND HIGH PRESSURES OVER THE UNITED STATES AND MEXICO. A WEAK TROF WAS OVER W'RN YUCATAN, NEWLY UPGRADED HURRICANE MATTHEW OVER THE E'RN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.2N/67.0W, AND A SLACK EAST-NORTHEAST AIRFLOW PREVAILED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL OVER BELIZE, WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING TO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND A TROF AXIS FROM THE EPAC TO HONDURAS/ BAY ISLANDS TO NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. THE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION WAS MARGINALLY HIGH WITH PWAT AROUND 55MM JUST EAST OF BELIZE. THE MOISTURE GRADUALLY DECREASED FARTHER EAST. 

THE GFS FORECASTS HURRICANE MATTHEW TO CONTINUE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY THEN TURN NORTH ROUGHLY ALONG 75W. THE GRADIENT WILL BECOME WEAKER OVER OUR AREA AND BACK TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW AND TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST ON SATURDAY, AS THE PROXIMITY OF THE HURRICANE INFLUENCES THE AIRFLOW. THE MOISTURE IS TO CONTINUE SIMILAR THROUGH SATURDAY, PEAKING AT NIGHT/ EARLY MORNINGS, THEN DECREASE A BIT DURING SATURDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO BECOME WEAKLY DIVERGENT TOMORROW AS THE UPPER TROF DRIFTS WEST AND EVENTUALLY CROSS BELIZE DURING SATURDAY. THIS SCENRAIO SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY LOW, EXCEPT A BIT HIGHER OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT, AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS. 

THE NAM, NVG AND WRF GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY. THE MODELS GO FOR LIGHT TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST AT NIGHT AND INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE GFS AND WRG ARE MORE AGRESSIVE WITH AMOUNTS OF 1.00-1.50 INS/6HRS OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT AND A BIT LESS INLAND IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE NAM AND NVG GO FOR MUCH LESS RAINFALL. 

FORECAST:  PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TOMORROW. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THEN INLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK:  CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE COAST FRIDAY NIGHT THEN MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN AND INLAND AREAS ON STAURDAY. 

MARINE:  WINDS:EAST-NORTHEAST 5-15KTS; SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES:3 FT. 

FCSTR: RUDON