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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

 

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

DATE: TUESDAY 22 JULY 2014 (AFTERNOON)  

SKIES WERE  SUNNY THIS MORNING. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED  ISOLATED SHOWER MAINLY OVER THE MAYA MOUNTAINS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS DRY AIR ALOFT. 

AT UPPER LEVELS, A TROUGH RUNS FROM THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN NORTHWEST ACROSS BELIZE. THIS SUPPORTS A SE'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND  AT 300MB.  AT 700MB, A DRY EASTERLY FLOW AFFECTS  THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN, INCLUDING BELIZE. AT 850MB,  MOISTURE AFFECTS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY, WHILE AN E/SE'LY FLOW PREVAILS. AT THE SURFACE THE 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS A SE'LY FLOW DOMINATED  THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN AND BELIZE. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS PLACED NEAR 83W. 

TUES AFTERNOON TO WED MIDDAY: 

DURING THIS CYCLE THE  FLOW AT  200MB AND 300MB REMAINS FROMTHE SE.  AT 700MB CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE EAST.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH ACROSS THE COUNTRY. THE  FLOW REMAINS FROM THE E/SE.  AT THE SURFACE, THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. GFS SHOWS .01IN-.10IN/3HRS WITH THE PEAK OVER THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. NAM SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

WED AFTERNOON TO THURS MIDDAY:

THE FLOW AT 200MB AND 300MB VEERS TO THE SW AS A LOW CENTER MOVES WEST OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE EAST. AT 850MB, MOISTURE  DECREASES, THEN INCREASES AGAIN BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE EAST/SOUTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE,  GFS SHOWS .01IN/3HRS OVER THE  COAST . NAM SHOWS NO RAINFALL.

FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.

EXTENDED:  SIMILAR TREND OCCURS BETWEEN WED AFTERNOON AND THURS MIDDAY.

MARINE: WINDS: EAST 5-15 KT SEAS:CHOPPY. WAVES: 2-4 FT. ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FORECASTER: Wellington