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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:  TUESDAY 27TH JANUARY 2015 (EVENING)

THE WEATHER CONTINUED COOL AND DRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SKIES CLEARED UP A BIT OVER THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON, AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER MOST AREAS. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z (NHC) SHOWED THE COLD FRONT NOW OVER E'RN CUBA AND JAMAICA TO NE HONDURAS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE COVERED THE ENTIRE GULF OF MEXICO, YUCATAN AND S'RN MEXICO, AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA WEST OF 80W. A 1023MB HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER THE NW GULF OF MEXICO, AND NORTHERLY AIRFLOW PREVAILED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA, BELIZE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE MOISTURE REMAINS LOW OVER THE AREA, WITH PWAT IN THE RANGE 25-35MM N-S, WITH MOISTURE CONFINED GENERALLY BELOW 5000FT. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN WAS WEAKLY CONVERGENT, WITH WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW OVER OUR AREA, AND THE BASE OF THE POLAR TROF EXTENDING SOUTH TO NEAR 20N/80W. 

THE GFS FORECASTS THE COLD FRONT TO BECOME STATIONARY TONIGHT AND DISSIPATE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE W'RN GULF IS TO COLLAPSE LATE TOMORROW AND A HIGH OVER THE E'RN UNITED STATES IS TO EXTEND A RIDGE TO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND BEZOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE. THIS WILL CAUSE SURFACE AND LOW LEVEL WINDS OVER OUR AREA TO VEER TO THE NORTHEAST BY THURSDAY. SURFACE CONVERGENCE IS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL FAVOR A GRADUAL INCREASE IN COASTAL SHOWERS, STARTING IN THE SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT, THEN OVER MOST PARTS OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THAT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE SLIGHTLY TOMORROW AND A BIT MORE ON THURSDAY. COLD STREAMING WITH THE NORTHEAST FLOW MAY ALSO LIKELY ENHANCE SHOWERS OVER THE SEA AND COAST. THIS ALONG WITH INCREASED SURFACE CONVERGENCE WILL SUPPORT A MODERATE INCREASE IN SHOWERS OVER SOME AREAS TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO REMAIN GENERALLY CONVERGENT THROUGH THURSDAY. 

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH THURSDAY. THE MODELS ALL GO FOR LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL TONIGHT, WITH THE GFS GOING FOR LIGHT AMOUNTS OR RAIN OVER THE SEA/ COAST TOMORROW, WHILE THE NAM AND NVG KEEP IT MAINLY DRY. THE GFS AND THE NAM THEN GO FOR RAIN OF UP TO 0.25 INS/6HRS OVER THE SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT; WHILE THE NAM GOES LIGHTER. FOR THURSDAY, THE GFS AND NVG TEND TO LESSEN THE RAINFALL, WHILE THE NAM BRINGS IN HEAVIER AMOUNTS (0.25-0.50 INS/6HRS) FROM THE NORTHEAST. 

FORECAST:  MOSTLY CLEAR, COLD AND DRY TONIGHT. VARIABLY CLOUDY AND COOL TOMORROW WITH THE CHANCE OF ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS.

OUTLOOK:  CLOUDY WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT, THEN OVER MOST OF THE COAST ON THURSDAY.

MARINE:  NORTH 5-15KTS; CHOPPY; 3-4FT.

FCSTR:  RUDON