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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:   SATURDAY 25TH APRIL 2015 (EVENING)                

WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUED SUNNY, HOT AND DRY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON WITH MAX TEMPS OF 91F HERE AT THE AIRPORT AND 97F IN OWALK TOWN. THE MAX WAS LIKELY A FEW DEGREES HIGHER OVER THE SAN IGNACIO AREA. VIS SAT IMAGERY SHOWED NO SIG CLOUDS OVER THE COUNTRY WHILE WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT. LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT OF AROUND 40MM. 

SFC ANALYSIS (NHC-18Z) SHOWS THAT THE SFC FLOW OVER THE AREA CONTINUES TO BE INFLUENCED BY HEAT LOWS OVER MAINLAND MEXICO AND THE ATLC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST. THESE FEATURES WERE RESPSONSIBLE FOR THE MOD E-SE'LY SFC FLOW OVER THE COUNTRY. SIMILAR FEATURES IN THE LOW LEVS SUPPORTED A GENERALLY SE'LY FLOW BETWEEN 850-700MB. AT THE UPPER LEVS THE FLOW WAS SW'LY AT 300MB AND WSW'LY AT 200MB. THE MAIN FEAUTURE AT UPPER LEVS WAS AN ANTICYCLONE OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN NEAR JAMAICA. THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY DIVERGENT.

THE GFS (12 AND 18Z) RUNS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO CONTINUE E-SE'LY FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SFC SYNOPTIC FEATURES REMAIN PRETTY MUCH UNCHANGED. IN THE LOW LEVS THE FLOW WILL BECOME MORE S'LY IN THE NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL SUPPORT EVEN HOTTER TEMPS, ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY. IN TERMS, OF MOISTURE, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AS THE MID-UPPER LEV RIDGE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A SUBSIDENT CAP OVER THE AREA.  AT THE UPPER LEVS THE FLOW WILL VEER A BIT TO THE WNW AT 200MB TONIGHT AND THEN SHIFT BACK TO THE WSW BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL REMAIN GENERALLY NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT. THE OVERALL SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT THE SEASONBLY HOT AND DRY WEATHER WILL LIKELY CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

THE MODELS (GFS, NAM AND WRF) ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS.    

FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY AND HOT TOMORROW WITH LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL.  

OUTLOOK:  FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE.

MARINE:  WINDS: E-SE 10-20 KTS. WITH OCCNL HIGHER GUSTS.; SEAS: MODERATE-ROUGH.; WAVES: 4-7 FT.; SMALL CRAFT CAUTION.  

FORECASTER: R. Gordon