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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:    TUESDAY 21ST OCTOBER 2014 (MORNING)

SAT IMAGERY (IR / EARLY VIS) AND RADAR SHOWED SOME CLOUDY SPELLS ALONG WITH A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED S'RN COASTAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY EARLIER LAST NIGHT THEN THE CENTRAL AND N'RN AREAS AROUND DAWN. WV IMAGERY DETECTED MOIST CONDITIONS OVER S'RN MEXICO AND THE GLF - CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W'RN / S'RN CARIBBEAN. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (10Z) SHOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE 55-5mm OVER THESE AREAS. SKEW-T (12Z) CONFIRMED HIGH AVAILABLE MOISTURE (PW 63.77mm) WHILE THE INDICES (KI 36.40, LIFTED -4.65, SHOW -1.43 AND CAPE 2902j/kg) INDICATE A RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRON.  

SFC ANALYSIS (TPC - 21 / 06Z) HAD A LOW (1006hPa) OVER THE W'RN BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE MONSOON TROUGH OFFSHORE THE PACIFIC COAST OF CENTRAL AMERICA ANCHORED ON A LOW (1007hPa) NEAR SW'RN MEXICO AND (1007hPa) OFFSHORE COSTA RICA. THE PRESSURE PATTERN SUPPORTS A LIGHT SE'LY SFC FLOW. AT LOW - MID LVLS THE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND A RIDGE FROM THE EAST SUPPORTS VEERING WINDS FROM SE'LY AT LOW LVLS TO SW'LY AT MID LVLS. A WEAKLY CONVERGENT PATTERN PREVAILED OVER OUR AREA WITH MAX CONVERGENCE IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE LOW. AT UPPER LVLS A RIDGE EXTENDS EAST ACROSS MEXICO - CENTRAL AMERICA INTO THE W'RN CARIBBEAN. THE WSW'LY - W'LY FLOW ALOFT WAS WEAKLY DIVERGENT WITH STRONG DIVERGENCE TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH OF OUR AREA.  

THE GFS (00Z) MODEL RUN FCST THE SFC- LOW LVL LOW TO MEANDER OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE DURING THE FCST PERIOD THEN DRIFT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS NE'RN YUCATAN DURING THE EXTND AND DAY THREE. LIGHT SE'LY SFC WINDS THROUGH TONIGHT ARE FCST TO VEER TO SW'LY AFTER MID-CYCLE. WHILE AT LOW LVLS THE SE'LY - S'LY FLOW IS TO ALSO BECMG SW'LY TONIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN (MONSOON TYPE FLOW)  IS TO SUPPORT GOOD LOW LVL MOISTURE / CONVERGENCE AND INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY DURING THE NEXT 3-5 DAYS.  WITH AND INCREASING SHOWER ACTIVITY. AT UPPER LVLS THE RIDGE IS TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA AS THE HIGH TRANSITIONS FROM THE E'RN PACIFIC / MEXICO TO THE GLFMEX BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW IS TO CONTINUE W'LY - NW'LY AND MAINTAIN A WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN AT FIRST BECMG MORE CONVERGENT DURING DAYS TWO AND THREE. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT MOSTLY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE FCST AND EXTND PERIODS INCREASING TO A FEW DURING DAYS 3-5.

THE MODELS (GFS / NAM / NVG) GENERALLY AGREE AND FCST RR AMTS OF .25-.5ins/6hrs OVER N'RN / INLAND AREAS DURING THE FCST PERIOD THEN DIFFER INTO THE EXTND PERIODS AS THE GFS MAINTAINS SIMILAR AMTS FOR DAY TWO THEN INCREASES STEADILY (.75-1.5ins/6hrs) THROUGH FRI. ON THE OTHER HAND THE NVG DRIES OUT WHILE RR AMTS BY THE NAM DECREASES DURING WED THEN INCREASES DURING THURS. TO .5-1.0ins/6hrs  

FORECAST:  SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TODAY AND ALONG SOUTHERN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK:   WED. AND WED. NIGHT IS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL. 

MARINE:   WINDS: SE'LY 5-15 KTS.; SEAS:  CHOPPY.; WAVES:  2-4 FT. 

FCSTR:     M.  GENTLE.