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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE: SATURDAY 10TH DECEMBER 2016 (AFTERNOON)

SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TIMES AROUND THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING.  RADAR IMAGES SHOWED INSIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE MAINLAND INITIALLY, THEN A FEW DEVELOPED OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED A BAND OF MOIST AIR OVER CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE CENTRAL GULF. MOISTURE WAS ALSO OBSERVED OVER SOUTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA AND ADJACENT WATERS AS WELL AS OVER THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT UPPER LEVELS RIDGING SUPPORTS A SW'LY FLOW. THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY NEUTRAL. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND RIDGING SUPPORTS A NE'LY FLOW. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST  AND THE FLOW IS NE'LY. THE 12Z SURFACE CHART(NHC) SHOWED A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN YUCATAN, MEXICO TO THE BAHAMAS, WHERE IT MERGED WITH A COLD FRONT. RIDGING IN THE GULF AND NW CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE'LY FLOW ACROSS BELIZE. A WEAK TROUGH WAS OBSERVED JUST SOUTH OF HAITI. A 1010MB LOW CENTER WAS ALSO OBSERVED NEAR PANAMA.

DURING THE NEXT 24-48HRS, RIDGING ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A S-W'LY FLOW. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN  MOSTLY CONVERGENT TO NEUTRAL. AT 700MB, MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE, THEN MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE EAST AT THE END OF THE CYCLE.   AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE AND THEN INCREASE ACROSS THE COUNTRY BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE EAST AT THE  END OF THE CYCLE. AT THE SURFACE, THE STATIONARY FRONT WILL DISSIPATE. THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE EAST. GFS SHOWS 0-.10IN/3HRS AT FIRST, THEN INCREASES AMOUNTS UP TO .25IN/3HRS.  NAM SHOWS UP TO .25IN/3HRS AT FIRST, THEN DECREASES AMOUNTS.

FORECAST: SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTRNOON AND TOMRROW MORNING AND Y CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOME COASTAL AREAS. 

OUTLOOK: BETWEEN  SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY MIDDAY IS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO GRADUALLY INCREASE ACROSS THE COUNTRY, ESPECIALY DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.  

MARINE: WINDS: EAST TO NORTHEAST 5-15KT ; SEAS:CHOPPY; WAVES: 3-4 FT;  A FEW SHOWERS. 

FCSTR: Wellington