NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: THURSDAY 23RD MAY (MORNING)  

SKIES WERE  PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY LAST NIGHT. INFRARED LOOP SHOWED COOL TOPS OVER THE SOUTH, ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST, OVER THE SOUTH AND OVER SOME INLAND AREAS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED  MOIST  AIR STREAMING FROM THE WSW OVER BELIZE.

AT  200MB  THE FLOW IS SW'LY RODUCED BY A RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN MEXICO AND NORTHERN CENTRAL AMERICA. THIS SAME RIDGE SUPPORTS A NW'LY FLOW AT 300MB.   AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST OVER THE SOUTH AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE SE.  AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST  AND  THE  FLOW IS  SE'LY.  AT THE SURFACE THE ATLANTIC HIGH SUPPORTS A MODERATE   E/SE'LY FLOW AROSS THE CARIBBEAN INCLUDING BELIZE. HEAT LOWS AFFECT MEXICO.

 THURS AND THURS NIGHT:

THE FLOW AT 200MB  VEERS TO THE WEST NORTHWEST  AND  REMAINS  NW'LY AT 300MB AS THE RIDGE PERSIST. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS  DRY OUT AND THE FLOW BACKS UP  TO THE  EAST.   AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH   AND THE FLOW REMAINS SE'LY.  AT THE SURFACE THE  FLOW SLOWLY BACKS UP TO THE EAST  AND  GFS SHOWS .01IN-.25 IN OVER THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING. THIS DECREASES TO .01-.10IN INLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN AMOUNTS INCREASE AGAIN UP TO .25IN ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT.  NAM SHOWS NO RAINFALL.

FRI ANF FRI NIGHT:

THE FLOW AT 200MB  THE FLOW  AND VEERS TO THE  WEST BUT REMAINS NW'LY AT 300MB.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS BECOMES MOIST AND THE FLOW REMAINS EASTERLY. AT 850MB, MOISTURE  AFFECTS THE  ENTIRE COUNTRY AND THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE  E.  AT THE SURFACE,  FLOW BACKS UP FURTHER TO THE E/NE.  GFS SHOWS UP TO .25IN ALONG THE COAST FOR MOST OF THIS CYCLE.  NAM SHOWS AN INCREASE ALSO, BUT ONLY UP TO .10IN.

FORECAST:   SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND CLOUDY PERIODS TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING AND INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXTENDED: FOR FRI AND FRI. NIGHT  IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ALONG  COASTAL AREAS.

MARINE: WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST 10-20 KNOTS.  SEAS: CHOPPY-MODERATE. WAVES: 3-6FT. A FEW SHOWERS AND CHANCE OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH COAST THIS MORNING.

FORECASTER: Wellington