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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: WEDNESDAY 30 JULY 2014 (EVENING)  

THE WEATHER WAS MOSTLY SUNNY, WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. SAT PICS SHOWED MOSTLY FAIR WEATHER CU CLOUDS OVER AND NEAR BZE WHILE NO RAINFALL WAS DETECTED ON RADAR. WATER VAPOUR LOOP SUGGESTS MOSTLY DRY CONDIONS AT MID-UPPER LEVS WHILE LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS SHOW PWAT OF AROUND 40-45MM OVER AND NEAR BZE.

SFC ANALYSIS (NHC-18Z) SHOWS A COLD FRONT OVER THE N'RN GULF OF MEXICO AND A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE SE USA. A WELL DEFINED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ABOUT 900MLS EAST OF THE S'RN WINDWARD ISLANDS. A LIGHT TO MOD E-SE'LY SFC FLOW DOMINATED OVER BZE. THIS AIRFLOW WAS MOSTLY DRY WITH LIMITED MOISTURE CONFINED IN THE LOW LEVS BELOW 900MB. THE FLOW WAS GENERALLY E'LY IN THE LOW LEVS (850-700MB). AT THE UPPER LEVS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ANCHORED OVER N'RN MEXICO/S'RN TEXAS AND A TUTT THROUGH NE HONDURAS TO HISPANIOLA WAS PRODUCING A MOSTLY CONVERGENT NE'LY FLOW. 

THE GFS (12 AND 18Z) MODEL RUNS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY E'LY TO ESE'LY OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. NO SIG LOW LEVEL FEATURE IS FCST TO IMPACT OUR WEATHER DURING THIS TIME. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE LOW. AT THE UPPER LEVS THE TUTT WILL DRIFT VERY SLOWLY W'WARD AND BE OVER THE COAST OF BZE BY THE END OF THE 48-H PERIOD. IN THE MEATIME WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTINUE NE'LY AND THE PATTERN WILL BE MOSTLY CONVERGENT/CONFLUENT. THE OVERALL SCENARIO, THEREFORE, FAVOURS CONTINUED MAINLY FAIR WEATHER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

THE GFS GOES FOR ONLY SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.01-0.10 INS/6HRS AT TIMES DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE NAM KEEPS THE COUNTRY FREE OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CAN BE EXPECTED.

EXTENDED: FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS FOR CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR, WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE: WINDS: E-SE 5-15 KT.; SEAS: LIGHT CHOP - CHOPPY.; WAVES: 2-4 FT.

FORECASTER: R. Gordon