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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SUNDAY 31ST AUGUST 2014 (EVENING)  

SKIES WERE CLOUDY TO OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LARGE AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN OVER CNTRL AND COASTAL AREAS DISSIPATED DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING. (RADAR DOWN 2045Z - 0130Z) SINCE 0130Z SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN AFFTECING THE ENTIRE COROZAL DISTRICT AND COASTAL STANN CREEK. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z (NHC) SHOWED THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER CNTRL YUCATAN AND W'RN BELIZE TO W'RN EL SALVADOR. THE 00Z TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK STATES THAT A BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA HAS FORMED OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA ON THE TROPICAL WAVE. THE ATLANTIC SURFACE RIDGE EXTENDED FROM A HIGH NEAR 36N/63W TO THE SE UNITED STATES, AND A MODERATE SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. OTHER TROPICAL WAVES WERE ALONG 64W AND 52W. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN WAS DIVERGENT, WITH AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE N'RN GULF OF MEXICO, A TROF FROM THE FLORIDA STRAITS TO JUST NORTH OF YUCATAN TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE, AND AN ANTICYCLONIC OURFLOW AREA OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN CENTERED NEAR 20N/86W. THE MOISTURE REMAINS HIGH WITH THE SOUNDING SHOWING PWAT OF 60MM. 

THE GFS FORECASTS THE SURFACE / LOW LEVEL AREA OF LOW PRESSURE TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TOMORROW MORNING THEN CONTINUE TO THE W'RN GULF BY TUESDAY MORNING. THE MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW IS TO PERSIST OVER OUR AREA THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AND CONTINUE CONVERGENT THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. THE MOISTURE IS TO CONTINUE HIGH TONIGHT, THEN DROP OFF TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE UPPER DIVERGENT PATTERN IS TO CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW, BUT MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES LATER TOMORROW AND LESSEN THE UPPER INFLUENCE. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS AND AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT, WITH A DECREASE TOMORROW, AS THE LOW PRESSURE AREA MOVES AWAY. THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW TONIGHT COULD POSSIBLY BRING UP THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE SOUTH IF THEY WERE TO DEVELOP IN THE GULF OF HONDURAS TONIGHT. 

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH TUESDAY. THE MODELS ALL GO FOR A DECREASE IN RAINFALL TOMORORW AND TOMORROW NIGHT. THE MODELS GENERALLY GO FOR RAINFALL OF 0.50-0.75 INS/6HRS OVER THE EXTREME NORTH AND N'RN COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT, THEN 0.10-0.25 INS/6HRS OVER SOME AREAS TOMORROW AND TOMORORW NIGHT. 

FORECAST:  CLOUDY TO OVERCAST TONIGHT WITH SOME LIGHT RAIN, SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS, BUT ESPECIALLY OVER THE COAST AND NORTHERN DISTRICTS. MOSTLY CLOUDY TOMORROW WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTOMRMS MAINLY OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS.

EXTENDED:  CLODY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER MOST AREAS ALONG WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE:  SOUTHEAST 10-20KTS. MODERATE. 5-6FT. SMALL CRAFT CAUITON. 

FORECASTER:  RUDON