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Monthly Weather Summary



October 2015


The broad cyclonic circulation of Hurricane Joaquin dominated our weather during the first few days of October. Joaquin meandered over the Central Bahamas while an induced ridge extended across Mexico and northern Central America during Friday 2nd into Saturday 3rd. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms moved from the northwest to southeast across the country during Thursday 1st associated with pre-frontal activity, then a weak cold front crossed the country during the late evening of the 2nd into the over-night and rapidly weakened into a frontal trough from Central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Upper leval conditions became drier as a northeasterly flow developed and along with a dry northwesterly surface - low level flow supported mainly fair weather during Saturday 3rd. Except for isolated showers over the Maya Mountains these conditions persisted during the following days and Thursday 8th. 


By Friday 9th a surface - low level trough extended from Florida to northwest Yucatan and supported a diurnal pattern of shower activity the next couple days. Over-night Saturday 10th into Sunday 11th a pre-frontal trough extended across Yucatan to just north of the country while a tropical wave along 84W approached from the east. Mainly fair weather conditions prevailed during Monday 12th and Tuesday 13th. By Wednesday 14th a divergent southwesterly flow developed aloft with a trough across the Bay of Campeche and Gulf of Tehuantepec and ridge over the Caribbean. At the surface and low levels a trough extended from offshore Costa Rica northwest through the Yucatan Channel. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms developed over the south over-night the 14th into the 15th and spread north and northwest across the country.  


Relatively moist and unstable conditions developed during Thursday 15th and Tuesday 20th as the trough remained quasi-stationary while a tropical wave moved into the area. The system would develop into an area of disturbed weather accompanied by a 1008hPa low over the Gulf of Honduras with a low chance for tropical development due to proximity land. By Saturday 17th the system drifted west to the border areas of Belize and Guatemala and a broad monsoon type flow developed. At the upper levels a high straddled southern Belize and the Gulf of Honduras and provided unstable conditions aloft.


Heavy showers and intense thunderstorms developed between Belize City and Turneffe atoll over-night Sunday 18th and Monday 19th while additional showers and thunderstorms affected the eastern slopes of the Maya Mountains and later over the northern districts. The heavy rainfall produced unpresedented localized flooding in low lying areas of Belize City and Nemo / Cemo had to be activated to render assistance to stranded residents in the city who had to be admitted to shelters, while river levels also rose over some other areas of the country. Another area of low pressure developed a couple hundred miles east of Belize City by Tuesday 20th with the associated trough drifting to the coast of Belize and eastern Yucatan by Tuesday 20th. An upper level trough maintained unstable conditions aloft.


Improving conditions developed during Wednesday 21st. The upper levels dried-out as a high centered over southern Mexico supported a northerly to northwesterly flow, while at the surface a 1010hPa low was positioned over the Bay of Campeche. A light east-southeasterly flow developed, however some residual moisture supported a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the south during the night. Mainly fair and dry weather developed the next few days. with early morning fog patches blanketing the Belize River Valley areas during Friday 23rd. Moisture increased at the upper levels during Saturday 24th and Sunday 25th but total available moisture remained relatively low as conditions were drier at or near the surface. Showers were generally isolated along with isolated air-mass thunderstorms developing inland due to daytime heating and over the south and coast over-night.


A cold front moved into the eastern Bay of Campeche by Sunday 25th and some pre-frontal activity in the form of showers and thunderstorms developed over inland areas during Monday 26th. Similar activity re-developed over the higher elevations of the Maya Mountains in the afternoon of Tuesday 27th, however conditions were mainly fair over-night. Except for some high level moisture and high clouds drifting north to south across the area, weather conditions were mainly fair and mostly dry during the last few days of October. Showers and thunderstorms were generally isolated. 



M. Gentle.