Seasonal Precipitation Outlook
Ten agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation forecast for the period June-July-August 2014 and May-June-July 2014 for Belize. This was done by using the data set for the period 1979-April 2014, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.
The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.
Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)
Near Normal - (33% of middle values in the dataset)
Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)
Thus based on the dataset 1979 to 2014, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast for (June-July-August 2014) prepared by CariCOF is going for Below normal rainfall for the entire country and the rainfall forecast for May-June-July 2014 that was prepared at Central American Forum is going for Normal rainfall for the entire country.
Rainfall Probabilistically of CariCOF
25% chance of above normal rainfall
30% chance of Normal rainfall
45% chance of Below Normal rainfall
Rainfall Probabilistically of Central American Forum
35% chance of above normal rainfall
40% chance of Normal rainfall
25% chance of Below Normal rainfall
Precipitation Outlook for June-July-August 2014 prepared by the Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook (CariCOF)
Precipitation Outlook for May-June-July 2014 prepared at the Central American Forum.
The main influence for the next season is the El Nino Southern Ocillation (ENSO). Recent observations: ENSO neutral; sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) warmed to 0.5°C above average in equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4).Model guidance: a majority indicate upward trend to 0.5-1.5°C above average by SON, initiating an El Niño event potentially as early as MJJ. Forecast: 67% confidence in El Niño conditions by JJA, 75% confidence in El Niño during SON.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.