Precipitation Outlook PDF Print E-mail



Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

( September-October-November 2016)  &

(December 2016-February 2017)




Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period September-October-November 2016  and December 2015-February 2017 This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to July 2016, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.


The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.


Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)


Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to July 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the rainfall forecast for Belize for period September-October-November 2016  is going for  Above Normal rainfall for the Entire Country, 

Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters during the SON and DJF period.


Precipitation Outlook for the period September-October-November 2016

son 2016 rainfall forecastson 2016 rainfall forecast percent


Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during September-October-November 2016 are as follows.



Accumulated rainfall totals for the SON 2016 season are likely to range from 500mm to 700mm  over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk). Over west central  (Cayo:  Central Farm  Belmopan and Spanish Lookout) range from 500 to 700mm Whiles in Baldy Beacon area projecting 1100 - 1300mm of rainfall.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the SON 2016 season are likely to range from 650mm to 800mm  along central coast ( Belize District) . The South accumulated total are likely to be 1100-1600mm i.e (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda Savannah and Punta Gorda).
The rainfall forecast for Belize for period  December2016-February 2017  is going for Above Normal rainfall  for the Entire Country .
djf 2016-2017 rainfall forecastdjf 2016-2017 rainfall forecast percent
Temperature Forecast for the period September-October-November 2016  is going for Above Normal as  indicated on the Maps Below.
son 2016 maximum temperature forecastson 2016 minimum temperature forecast

What influences the next season? Model guidance suggest a transition to either  La Niña  or ENSO neutral conditions , with 55% confidence of  La Niña conditions in place for SON and DJFwill be in place by ND16J2017. La Niña tends to suppress drought situation in the western Caribbean, during La Niña the winds are lighter and hence give way to more convection built up. 

The expected impact on the rainfall  for Belize for period SON period is  for POSSIBLE FLOODING in the south.


The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.