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Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(December 2015 to Febraury 2016)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  forecast for the period December 2015-January-Febraury 2016  This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to October 2015, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2015, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period  December 2015-Jaunaury-February 2016  is going for Above Normal rainfall for the Entire Country

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period December 2015-January-February 2016

djf 2015-2016 rainfall percent

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during D2015JF2016 are as follows.

djf 2015 2016 rainfall fcst

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the D15JF2016 season are likely to range from 200mm to 300mm  over northern aresa (Corozal &Orange Walk)
Accumulated rainfall totals for the D15JF2016 season are likely to range from 200mm to 400mm over Inland areas (Cayo) and also over Central Coastal areas (Belize District).

 

Accumulated rainfall totals over southern Belize (Stann Creek and Toledo) are likely to be between  500mm and  700mm.

 

 

What influences the next season?

El Niño Southern Oscillation: A strong El Niño have evolved ; sea-surface temperatures of 1-1.5°C above average and rising in equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). There is more than 95 % confidence that El Niño will continue  through the DJF with further warmning. 

The expected impact of this warming trend on rainfall and temperature is for a high chance of  Above normal to normal rainfall and higher temperatures for the Northwest  and western Caribbean during the December-January-February season .  The influence  of El Niño  in this part of the region during the   December-January-February season is that the winds are reduced  in the upper atmosphere, which allows for stronger showers.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.