Precipitation Outlook PDF Print E-mail

met_logo

 


Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(September-October-November 2014)

&

(August-September-October 2014)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Ten agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  forecast for the period September-October-November 2014  and August-September-October 2014 for Belize. This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979-July 2014, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset 1979 to 2014, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast  for  (September-October-November 2014) prepared by CariCOF is going for Below Normal rainfall for the entire country and the rainfall forecast for August-September-October 2014  that was prepared at Central American Forum is going for  Below Normal  rainfall for the  entire country.

 

Rainfall Probabilistically of CariCOF

25% chance of above normal rainfall

30% chance of Normal rainfall

45% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

Rainfall Probabilistically of Central American Forum

 20% chance of above normal rainfall

35% chance of Normal rainfall

45% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

 Precipitation Outlook for September-October-November 2014 prepared by the Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook (CariCOF)

caricofson precip

 

Precipitation Outlook for August-September-October 2014 prepared at the Central American Forum.

centralamericaaso14

 

ENSO Conditions:

 

What influences the next season?

 

 

ENSO neutral; sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) were 0-0.5°C above average in equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). Model guidance: a majority indicate upward trend to 0.5-1.5°C above average for SON and DJF, or a weak to moderate El Niño event.Forecast: 60% confidence in El Niño conditions by SON, 67% confidence in El Niño during DJF. Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: a shift to higher probabilities for below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures south of 20°N for SON and, especially, DJF.

 


Disclaimer

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.