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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

(January - February - March 2017) and (April - May - June 2017)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

 

Based on on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period January - February - March 2017 (JFM 2017)  is for Generally Near Normal rainfall for most areas of the country with a tendency towards slightly below normal in the north and slightly above normal in the south. Temperatures are also expected to be near normal during this period.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period January-February-March 2017 are as follows:

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 100-150 Slightly Below
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 200-300

Slightly Below

Central Costal Areas (Belize and Northern Stann Creek Districts) 250-350 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Southern Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 250-400 Slightly Above

       

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period April - May - June 2017 (AMJ 2017)  is for Near Normal rainfall for Northern areas and above normal rainfall over Central and Southern areas of the country. Above normal maximum and minimum temperatures are forecast during this period.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period April - May - June 2017 are as follows:

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts)  300-400  Near Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District)  300-800  Slightly Above
Central Costal Areas (Belize and Northern Stann Creek Districts)  400-800  Above Normal
Southern Areas (Southern Stann Creek and Toledo Districts)  600-1000  Above Normal

 

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range. 

Period Rainfall Maps Percent Maps (Below/Above) Maximum Temperature Maps Minimum Temperature Maps
Jan-Feb-Mar (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map
Apr-May-June (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map

 

What influences the next season? Recent obervations suggests that sea surface temperatures in the  equatorial eastern Pacific are about 0.5 degrees celcius below normal. This indicates borderline La Niña conditions. Model guidance suggest that these borderline  La Niña  conditions will persist through January of 2017 (50-60% confidence) followed by a return to ENSO neutral conditions by February-March-April (FMA) of 2017 (50-75% confidence).  There is little confidence in the April-May-June forecast since the major climate indicators are weak during this period. Users are asked to continue to monitor the situation and stay tuned for updates that will be provided during the coming months.

 

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.