Seasonal Precipitation Outlook
Several agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation forecast for the period September-October-November 2015 This was done by using the data set for the period 1979-July 2015, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.
The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.
Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)
Near Normal - (33% of middle values in the dataset)
Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)
Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2015, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period September-October-November 2015 is going for Below Normal rainfall for the Entire Country
Precipitation Outlook for the period September-October-November 2015
Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during SON 2015 are as follows.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the SON season are likely to range from 200mm to 400mm over northern aresa (Corozal &Orange Walk)
Accumulated rainfa;; totals for the SON season are likely to range from 400mm to 700mm over Inland areas (Cayo) and also over Central Coastal areas (Belize District).
Accumulated rainfall totals over southern Belize (Stann Creek and Toledo) are likely to be between 700 mm and 1000 mm.
What influences the next season?
El Niño Southern Oscillation: A strong El Niño have evolved ; sea-surface temperatures of 1-1.5°C above average and rising in equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). There is more than 95 % confidence that El Niño will continue through the SON and DJF season with further warmning.
The expected impact of this warming trend on rainfall and temperature is for a high chance of below normal rainfall and higher temperatures for the region. As El Niño usuall weakens the development of shower activity (Strong Showers and Tropical Cyclone). However a shift towards Above-Normal rainfall is noted for the Northwest Caribbean during the December-January-February season due to reduced winds in the upper atmosphere, which allows for stronger showers.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.