Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook
( July-August-September 2016) &
Several agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast for the period July-August-September 2016 and October-November-December 2016 This was done by using the data set for the period 1979 to May 2016, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.
The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.
Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)
Near Normal - (33% of middle values in the dataset)
Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)
Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to May 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the rainfall forecast for Belize for period July-August-September 2016 is going for Above Normal rainfall for the Entire South, Normal rainfall for the Central and Northern Coast and Below Normal rainfall for West Central Areas.
Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters during the JAS and OND period.
Precipitation Outlook for the period July-August-September 2016
Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during July -August-September 2016 are as follows.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the JAS 2016 season are likely to range from 300mm to 600mm over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk). Over west central (Cayo: Central Farm Belmopan and Spanish Lookout) range from 400 to 600mm Whiles in Baldy Beacon area projecting 1000 - 1600mm of rainfall.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the JAS 2016 season are likely to range from 800mm to 1000mm along central coast ( Belize District) . The South accumulated total are likely to be 2000-2400mm i.e (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda Savannah and Punta Gorda).
The rainfall forecast for Belize for period October-November-December 2016 is going for Above Normal rainfall for the Entire Country Except.
Temperature Forecast for the period July-August-September 2016 is going for Above Normal as indicated on the Maps Below.
Temperature Forecast for the period October-November-September 2016 is going for Above Normal as indicated on the Maps Below.
What influences the next season?
El Niño Southern Oscillation: Weak El Niño continues to weaken and Models indicate that a transition to La Niña by September with (58-65%) confidence, with a persistent La Nina conditions lasting throughout OND.
The expected impact on the rainfall for Belize for period JAS period is for POSSIBLE FLOOD in the south.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.