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Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(May-June-July 2015)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Ten agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  forecast for the period May-June-July 2015  This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979-December 2014, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset 1979 to 2014, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast  for  (May-June-July 2015) prepared at the Central American Forum that was helded in Manangua Nicaragua  is going for  Above Normal rainfall to prevail over the North, Interior  and Extreme South of the country. The Coastal areas are going for Normal Rainfall to prevail. 

 

Rainfall Probabilistically for North, Interior and Extreme South

40% chance of above normal rainfall

35% chance of Normal rainfall

25% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

Rainfall Probabilistically  for Coastal Areas.

 35% chance of above normal rainfall

40% chance of Normal rainfall

25% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

 

Precipitation Outlook for May-June-July 2015 prepared at the Central American Forum.

mjj 2015

 

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.