Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(May-June-July 2013)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  forecast for the period May-June-July 2013. This was done by using the data set for the period 1981-2010, along with global models, observations and subjective input.

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

Thus based on the dataset 1981 to 2010, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast  for  (May-June-July 2013 for slightly above normal rainfall to prevail over Northern and Inland areas and Normal rainfall for southern and coastal areas. 

Rainfall (Northern & Inland areas)

Probabilistically, there is a

40% chance of above normal rainfall

35% chance of near normal rainfall

25% chance of below normal rainfall

Rainfall (Coastal & Southern areas)

Probabilistically, there is a

35% chance of above normal rainfall

40% chance of Normal rainfall

25% chance of Below Normal rainfall

The rainfall that is expected over some district stations for the period May-June-July 2013, is as follows.

Northern Areas

Libertad (Corozal) ( > 529.8mm) or ( >20.9 inches)

Tower Hill (Orange walk ( > 526.4mm) or ( >20.7 inches)

Central  Coastal and Inland Areas

Philip Goldson Airport (Belize) (482.3-620.4 mm) or (18.9 - 24.4 inches)

Belmopan (Cayo) ( > 726.9 mm) or ( >28.6 inches)

Central Farm (Cayo) ( > 519.7 mm) or ( >20.5 inches)

Spanish Look out (Cayo) ( >560.4mm) or ( >22.1 inches)

Southern Areas

Middlesex (Stann Creek) (860.5 - 1037.6 mm) or (33.9 - 40.9 inches)

Pomona (Stann Creek Valley) (692.9 - 939.8 mm) or (27.3 - 37.0 inches)

Melinda (Stann Creek Valley) (555.1 - 660.4 mm) or (21.9 - 26.0 inches)

Savannah (South Stann Creek) (562.9 - 813.5 mm) or (22.2 - 32.0 inches)

Punta Gorda (Punta Gorda) (1129.4 - 1556.9 mm) or (44.5 - 61.3 inches)

CARICOF Probabilistic Rainfall Outlook May-June-July2013

May-June-July 2013 Discussion

May-June-July  is the transition period from the dry to the wet season. 

Belize is projecting 40% of above normal for northern and inland areas and 35% normal for coastal and southern areas. There is only a 25% chance that rainfall will be below normal.  With above to normal  rainfall this would tend to lessen the drought that has been affecting  the country since Febraury-March-April season.

ENSO Conditions:

After a summer with equatorial SST anomalies above 0.5°C, El Niño appeared to be in place, but has largely dissipated since, with SSTs now very close to average. This evolution limits the predictability of rainfall and temperatures in the Caribbean. However, there is a small chance that, consistent with El Niño (whether in part due to El Niño or not at all), dryer than normal conditions since summer in the southern Caribbean could prevail throughout the present forecast period. The latter is due to below average soil moisture, limiting the amount of evaporation and precipitation. In conclusion, the ENSO evolution needs to be closely followed, since a reemergence of El Niño, even if not forecast at this time, would tend to exacerbate existing rainfall deficits.

Precipitation Outlook for May-June-July prepared at the Central American Forum.

Precipitation Outlook generated at the Central American Forum is projecting a higher probability for  above Normal rainfall over Northern and Inland areas and normal conditions over Coastal and southern areas. America.

Disclaimer

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.