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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

( November-December-January 2016-2017)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period November-December-January (NDJ) 2016-2017. This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to September 2016, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

Based on on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for period November-December-January (NDJ) 2016-2017  is for Slightly below Normal rainfall for northern and central coastal areas and normal rainfall over inland and southern areas of the country. Above Normal Temperatures are forecast for the country during this period.

  

The map below show some approximate rainfall totals that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted here but should be somewhere in that general range. The map at the bottom show how this forecast compares to the average that normally occurs in the period.

NDJ 2016-2017 RAINFALL FORECASTNDJ 2016-2017 RAINFALL FORECAST PERCENT

   

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected across key districts stations during the period November-January 2016-2017 are as follows.

 

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the NDJ 2016-2017 season are likely to range from 100mm to 200mm  over northern areas (Corozal & Orange Walk).  Amounts over west central areas  (Cayo:  Central Farm  Belmopan and Spanish Lookout) are expected to range from 400 to 500mm while over the Baldy Beacon area projections are for around  700 - 800mm of rainfall. Over central coastal areas (Belize Districts) amounts are expected to range from 300-400mm. Stations in the south will see rainfall ranging from around 500-800mm.
 
 
Temperature Forecast for the period November-December-January 2016-2017  is for Above Normal temperatures. The map below some approximate values for the average maximum (top) and average minimum (bottom) temperatures during the period.  Note that these exact values are not expected to occur but values should be in the general ranges shown below.
 
 
NDJ 2016 MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECASTNDJ 2016 MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST
 
 

What influences the next season? Recent obervations suggests that sea surface temperatures in the  equatorial eastern Pacific are about 0.5 degrees celcius below normal. This indicates borderline La Niña conditions. Model guidance suggest that these borderline  La Niña  conditions will persist through December of 2016 (50-60% confidence) followed by a return to ENSO neutral conditions by February-March-April (FMA) of 2017 (50-75% confidence). La Niña tends to suppress drought situation in the western Caribbean. During La Niña the winds are lighter at upper levels over this region. This result in less vertical shear and the potential for more convective development and subsequent storminess over the area.

The expected impact on the rainfall  for Belize for period NDJ (2016-2017) period is  for POSSIBLE FLOODING in the south.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.