Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook
( September-October-November 2016) &
(December 2016-February 2017)
Several agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast for the period September-October-November 2016 and December 2015-February 2017 This was done by using the data set for the period 1979 to July 2016, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.
The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.
Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)
Near Normal - (33% of middle values in the dataset)
Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)
Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to July 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the rainfall forecast for Belize for period September-October-November 2016 is going for Above Normal rainfall for the Entire Country,
Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters during the SON and DJF period.
Precipitation Outlook for the period September-October-November 2016
Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during September-October-November 2016 are as follows.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the SON 2016 season are likely to range from 500mm to 700mm over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk). Over west central (Cayo: Central Farm Belmopan and Spanish Lookout) range from 500 to 700mm Whiles in Baldy Beacon area projecting 1100 - 1300mm of rainfall.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the SON 2016 season are likely to range from 650mm to 800mm along central coast ( Belize District) . The South accumulated total are likely to be 1100-1600mm i.e (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda Savannah and Punta Gorda).
The rainfall forecast for Belize for period December2016-February 2017 is going for Above Normal rainfall for the Entire Country .
Temperature Forecast for the period September-October-November 2016 is going for Above Normal as indicated on the Maps Below.
What influences the next season? Model guidance suggest a transition to either La Niña or ENSO neutral conditions , with 55% confidence of La Niña conditions in place for SON and DJFwill be in place by ND16J2017. La Niña tends to suppress drought situation in the western Caribbean, during La Niña the winds are lighter and hence give way to more convection built up.
The expected impact on the rainfall for Belize for period SON period is for POSSIBLE FLOODING in the south.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.