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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

( May-June-July 2016)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period May-June-July 2016  This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to March 2016, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period May-June-July 2016  is going for  Normal rainfall  for the entire country Except the North which is projecting Below Normal rainfall. Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters.

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period May-June-July 2016

mjj 2016 rainfall fcstmjj 2016 rainfall percent

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during May-June-July 2016 are as follows.

 

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the MJJ 2016 season are likely to range from 200mm to 400mm  over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk). Over west central  (Cayo  Central Farm  Belmopan and Baldy Beacon) projecting 400 - 700mm of rainfall.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the MJJ 2016 season are likely to range from 600mm to 700mm  along central coast ( Belize District) . The South accumulated total are likely to be 700-1400mm i.e (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda Savannah and Punta Gorda).
 
Temperature Forecast for the period May-June-July 2016 are indicated on the Maps Below.
max temp fcst mjj 2016min temp fcst mjj 2016mean temp fcst mjj 2016
 

What influences the next season?

 

 

El Niño Southern Oscillation: A moderate  El Niño is now weakening  ; sea-surface temperatures of 1.1°C above average  in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). Model forecast and guidance indicate a return to neutral condition  in May-June-July of 2016 and 55-75% confidence and a possible transition to La Nina conditions by ASO 50-65% confidence. 

The expected impact on the rainfall and temperatures for Belize for period MJJ period is  for Normal rainfall  over much of the country and higher temperatures.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.