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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

( August-September-October 2016)  &

(November-November 2016-Janaury 2017)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period August-September-October 2016  and November-December 2016-January 2017 This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to June 2016, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to June 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the rainfall forecast for Belize for period August-September-October 2016  is going for  Above Normal rainfall for the Entire Country, 

Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters during the ASO and NDJ period.

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period August-September-October 2016

aso 2016 rainfall forecastaso 2016 rainfall forecast percent

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during August-September-October 2016 are as follows.

 

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the ASO 2016 season are likely to range from 600mm to 800mm  over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk). Over west central  (Cayo:  Central Farm  Belmopan and Spanish Lookout) range from 700 to 900mm Whiles in Baldy Beacon area projecting 1200 - 1500mm of rainfall.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the ASO 2016 season are likely to range from 700mm to 900mm  along central coast ( Belize District) . The South accumulated total are likely to be 1200-1900mm i.e (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda Savannah and Punta Gorda).
 
The rainfall forecast for Belize for period  November-December2016-January 2017  is going for Above Normal rainfall  for the Entire Country .
 
ndj 2016-2017 rainfall forecastndj 2016-2017 rainfall forecast percent
 
Temperature Forecast for the period August-September-October 2016  is going for Above Normal as  indicated on the Maps Below.
aso 2016 maximum temperature forecastaso 2016 minimum temperature forecast
 
 

What influences the next season? Model guidance shows that there is a 50% confidence that a weak  La Niña should be in place by August-September -October 2016  and 60% confidence that La Niña will be in place by ND16J2017. La Niña tends to suppress drought situation in the western Caribbean, during La Niña the winds are lighter and hence give way to more convection built up. 

The expected impact on the rainfall  for Belize for period ASO period is  for POSSIBLE FLOODING  in the south.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.