Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • At 9:00am Tropical Storm Harvey was centered near latitude 13.1N and longitude 61.3W or about 50 miles SSW of St. Lucia. Harvey was moving to the West at 21mph with Maximum sustained winds of 40mph. An area of low pressure located about 750 miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands has a high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next couple of days as it moves west-northwestward at about 20mph. Elsewhere, in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH (SOUTH OF PUNTA GORDA TOWN), CONDITIONS WERE GENERALLY FAIR ACROSS MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY DURING THE NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOW MOSTLY DRY CONDITOINS AT THE MID-UPPER LEVS. LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS SUGGESTS THAT AVAILABLE MOISTURE IS DECREASING WITH PWAT OF AROUND 45MM NEAR BZE AND LOWER VALUES FURTHER EAST APPROACHING THE COUNTRY. THE 12Z SOUNDING IS IN AGREEMENT WITH PWAT OF 43.03MM. THE STABILITY INDICES WERE MIXED. (SHOW 2.87, LI -5.20, KI 18.70 AND CAPE 2516).

SFC ANALYSIS (06Z) SHOWED A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE NE GLF OF MEX AND A SFC TROF (TUTT INDUCED) OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN FROM HAITI TO N'RN SOUTH AMERICA. AT 12Z TROPICAL STORM HARVEY WAS CENTRED NEAR 13.0N,60.3W OR ABOUT 60 MILES ESE OF ST. LUCIA AND HEADING WEST AT 18MPH WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40MPH. A LIGHT E-NE'LY SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED OVER THE COUNTRY TODAY. THE FLOW IN THE LOW LEVS (850-700HPA) WAS GENERALLY E'LY. AT THE UPPER LEVS THE FLOW WAS ENE'LY. A RIDGE AXIS WAS WEST OF THE AREA WHILE A LARGE UPPER LOW/TUTT WAS CENTERED NEAR CNTRL CUBA. THE PATTERN ALOFT WAS GENERALLY NEUTRAL.

THE GFS (00 AND 06Z RUNS) FCST THE SFC FLOW TO BE ENE'LY TODAY AND BECOME MORE NE'LY TONIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FCST AND OUTLOOK PERIOD. THIS SHIFT IN WINDS OCCUR AS THE TUTT INDUCED SFC TROF APPROACHES. THIS SYSTEM WILL EXTEND FROM CNTRL CUBA, W'RN JAMAICA TO THE SW CARIBBEAN BY THIS EVENING AND THEN BE NEAR 83W BY SAT EVENING. AFTER THAT IT SLOWS DOWN AND BECOME ABSORBED BY THE CIRCULATION ASSOCIATED WITH HARVEY. MOISTURE IS FCST TO BE VERY LOW OVER THE AREA FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. ADDITIONALLY, UPPER LEV CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE VERY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION. THE LARGE TUTT/LOW WILL PASS NORTH OF THE AREA CAUSING WINDS ALOFT TO SHIFT TO THE WNW BY THIS EVENING. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT. THEREFORE, GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED AND NO SIG CHANCE IS EXPECTED UNTIL EARLY SUNDAY AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF THE TUTT/INDUCED SFC TROF AND THE OUTER FRINGES OF HARVEY BEGIN AFFECTING THE COUNTRY.

THE MODELS (GFS, WRF AND NAM) GENERALLY AGREE THAT RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE QUITE LOW FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED.
FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS FOR CONTINUING GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.
Winds Seas Waves
East-Northeast | 5-15 kts Choppy 3 ft

Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald

Last Updated: Fri, Aug 18, 2017 | 06:35 AM