Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • For the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS OF THE COUNTRY LASTNIGHT/EARLY MORNING. SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS THE ACTIVITY STARTED OVER THE SOUTH LASTNIGHT THEN SPREAD ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED A MOIST MID-UPPER LEVELS OVER BELIZE, THE E'RN CARIBBEAN AND THE E'RN AND S'RN GULF OF MEXICO WHILE THE REST OF THE REGION WAS FAIRLY DRY. THE LATEST (13Z) TPW IMAGE SHOWED HIGH AMTS OF MOISTURE NEAR THE COAST OF BELIZE. THE 12 SOUNDING SHOWED THE SFC TO UPPER LEVELS WERE VERY MOIST WITH PWAT 61.52 AND KINX 34.4, LIFT -3.22, SHOW-0.34 AND CAPE 1495.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 06Z SHOWED A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINED OVER THE AREA WHICH CONTINUED TO SUPPORT A LIGHT NNE'LY AIRFLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 78W AND ANOTHER WAVE WAS NEAR 62W. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. AT 850MB THE FLOW WAS ENE AND NE AT 700MB. AT THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING CONTINUED TO SUPPORT S'LY WINDS AT 300MB AND 200M AND THE PATTERN WAS DIVERGENT.

GFS FCST THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL CROSS THE COUNTRY LATE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY WHILE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO STALL OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THEN RETROGRESS OVER THE NW'RN GULF. THE SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN NNE'LY TODAY AND TOMORROW THEN BECOME ENE'LY BY THURSDAY. THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN ENE'LY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SSW'LY WINDS AND THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DIVERGENT.

GFS RAINFALL MODEL CONITNUES TO SHOW A DIURNAL RAINFALL PATTERN WITH 0.25-0.50IN/3HRS OVER INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON THEN SIMILAR AMTS OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. THEREAFTER A FURTHER INCREASE IN RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MAINLY ALONG THE COAST THIS MORNING, INLAND THIS AFTERNOON THEN OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN AND COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY MORNING SPREADING TO INLAND AREAS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Winds Seas Waves
North-Northeast | 5-15 kts Light Chop 1-3 ft

Forecaster: Smith, Michelle

Last Updated: Tue, Oct 17, 2017 | 08:04 AM