Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Showers and thunderstorms over the west-central Gulf of Mexico associated with a surface trough, has a low chance of development. Elsewhere in the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean Sea, and the North Atlantic, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

A FEW SMALL AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED SHOWERS AFFECTED THE WEST AND NORTH THIS MORNING. THE AIRFLOW WAS RELATIVELY MOIST EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT HAS BECOME LESS SO DURING THE MORNING. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 12Z (NHC) SHOWED A 1007MB LOW OVER NE MEXICO WITH A TROF SE'WD TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. A 1010MB LOW WAS OVER PANAMA AND HIGH PRESSURES DOMINATED THE NE GULF OF MEXICO. THESE FEATURES SUPPORTED A MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE ALOW OVER OUR AREA. RIDGING TO THE NORTHEAST SUPPORTED A SOUTHEAST FLOW AT 850MB, THAT BECAME SOUTHERLY AT 700MB. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL, WITH A HIGH CENTER TO THE WEST OF BELIZE AT 200MB.

THE GFS FORECASTS THE TROF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE HIGH PRESSURESĀ OVER THE SW NORTH ATLANTIC TO PERSIST OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE FLOW THAT BECOMES GUSTY AT NIGHT. THE MOISTURE IS TO DROP OFF MORE THIS AFTERNOON, BECOMING LOW BY TONIGHT, EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTH. THIS DECREASE INĀ  MOISTURE IS SUPPORTED BY THE MIMIC TPW IMAGES , WHICH SHOW DRIER AIR COMING OUR WAY. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO BECOME WEAKLY CONVERGENT BY TOMORORW, AS THE UPPER HIGH TO THE WEST MOVES AWAY, AND AN UPPER LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING.

THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE ISOLATED, EXCEPT A FEW MORE OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS ON THE SURFACE PATTERN AND MOISTURE LEVEL THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE MODELS GO FOR LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL THROUGH WEDNESDAY, EXCEPT FOR THE GFS WHICH SHOWS 0.25-0.50 INS/3HRS OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

PARTLY CLOUDY BECOMING CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OVER THE TOLEDO DISTRICT TONIGHT.
(TUE AFTERNOON - MIDDAY WED) MAINLY FAIR AND WARM WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.
Winds Seas Waves
East-Southeast | 10-20 kts | Gusty Moderate 4-6 ft

Forecaster: Rudon, Derrick

Last Updated: Mon, Jun 18, 2018 | 12:54 PM