Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
  • Small Craft Caution is in effect for occasional gusty winds and rough seas.

SKIES  WERE  CLOUDY (SC) ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.   RADAR IMAGES  SHOWED BRIEF ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE COAST BETWEEN INDEPENDECNCE VILLAGE AND PUNTA GORDA TOWN .  WATER  VAPOR LOOP  SHOWED  VERY DRY AIR  ALOFT, WHILE  MIMIC SHOWED  PWAT'S VALUE NEAR 35-40MM.

AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING  SUPPORTED  SW'LY WINDS. THE PATTERN WAS CONVERGENT.  AT 700MB CONDITIONS WERE  MOIST OVER THE  SOUTH AND  THE FLOW WASN E'LY.  AT 850MB CONDITIONS WERE  MOIST  AND THE FLOW WAS NW'LY.  THE 18Z SURFACE CHART(NHC) SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL BELIZE TO WESTERN CUBA AND BEYOND. A WEAK TROUGH WAS JUST AHEAD OF THE FORNT, WHILE  A 1029MB HIGH CENTER WAS OVER THER NW GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGING OVER THE GULF SUPPORTED A STRONG AND GUSTY NW'LY FLOW. AT THE SAME TIME A 1010MB LOW CENTER WAS OVRE NORTHERN COLUMBIA.  THE 00Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PWAT'S VALUE TO BE 27.06MM, KINX'S;16.4 AND CAPE'S;0.0.

 DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS PERIOD, RIDGING  WILL  MAINTAIN SW'LY WINDS  ALOFT.   THE PATTERN WILL BECOME  NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY DIVERGENT.   AT 700MB  MOISTURE  WILL  DRY OUT , THEN INCREASE OVER THE NORTH BY THE END OF THE CYCLE.  THE FLOW WILL VEER  TO THE SE  BY THE END OF THE CYCLE.    AT 850MB, MOISTURE WILL  FLUCTUATE AROUND THE COUNTRY. THE  FLOW WILL ALSO VEER TO THE SE BY THE END OF THE CYCLE.  AT THE SURFACE THE  COLD FRONT WILL DRIFT TO NORTHERN HONDURAS WHERE IT WILL STALL AND BEGIN TO DISINTEGRATE.  THE RIDGE OVER THE GULF WILL QUIKLY MOVE EAST AND A LIGHT  SE'LY FLOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED, SUPPORTING THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TO MOVE BACK NW OVER THE REGION, WHILE DISINTEGRATING.  

DURING THE 24-48 HRS PERIOD  BOTH GFS  AND NAM SHOW   0-.01IN/3HRS.  

VARIABLY CLOUDY, WINDY AND COOL WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
FOR MON NIGHT AND TUES IS FOR GENERALLY FAIR AND COOL WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.
Winds Seas Waves
North-Northwest | 15-25 kts | Gusty Rough 5-7 ft

Forecaster: Wellington, Francisca

Last Updated: Sun, Jan 20, 2019 | 06:24 PM