Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • - At 9:00pm Subtropical Storm Ernesto was located near latitude 39.7N and longitude 45.1W or about 630 miles SE of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Ernesto was moving to the NNE at 10mph with maximum sustained winds of 40mph. - Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

IMAGES FROM SATELLITES AND RADAR WOULD SUGGEST THAT THE WEATHER WAS MAINLY FAIR ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. APART FROM VERY SHALLOW LOW LEV MOISTURE, THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING SHOWED A RELATIVELY DRY AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT. PWAT WAS 43.45MM, BUT MOST LIKELY FOUND IN THE LOW LEVS. SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SUGGESTED A WEAKLY CONVERGENT TO NEUTRAL UPPER LEV PATTERN THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. 

THE NE-SW ORIENTED TUTT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN HAS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED JUST EAST OF BELIZE, AND THIS CENTER IS SUGGESTED TO SHIFT WEST OF THE COUNTRY OVERNIGHT, TO ALLOW A MORE SW'LY AND DIVERGENT UPPER LEV FLOW PATTERN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS WILL SUPPORT CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY BEING FORECAST FOR LATE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, WITH A TUTT INDUCED WAVE MAKING ITS WAY ACROSS THE AREA IN THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. 

THE MODELS (GFS, NAM, WRF) ALL AGREE WITH THE INCREASE IN PRECIP ACTIVITY FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, SUGGESTING MOD TO HIGH AMTS OF RR. WHILE GFS AND NAM SUGGESTS PRECIP ACTIVITY ACROSS MOST OF THE COUNTRY, THE HIGHER RESOLUTION WRF DOMAIN 2 SUGGESTS PRECIP ACTIVITY WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER CNTRL AND S'RN BELIZE. WRF SUGGESTS THE MAX IN RR, WITH UP TO ABOUT 2IN/3HR OVER THE SOUTH ON FRIDAY NIGHT. FOR LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY, GFS AND NAM GENERALLY AGREE TO SUGGEST 0.5IN/3HR WITH  MAX OF 0.75IN/3HR. 

PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS BEING ISOLATED.
FOR THURSDAY NIGHT IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING LATE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. THEN, ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AND SPREAD TO AFFECT MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY ON FRIDAY.
Winds Seas Waves
East | 5-15 kts Slight-Light Chop 1-3 ft

Forecaster: Guy, Angelia

Last Updated: Wed, Aug 15, 2018 | 08:35 PM