Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
  • Residents living in flood-prone areas in the south are advised to be on the alert for the possibility of localized and flash flooding.
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • AT 3 AM: -Tropical Depression Kirk was centered near latitude 9.5 North, longitude 37.4 West. Kirk was moving W at 24 mph with maximum sustained windsof 35 mph. - Subtropical Storm Leslie was near 32.6N 48.6 W. It was moving S at 6 mph with maximum winds of 40 mph. -NO THREAT TO BELIZE AT THIS TIME. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

SAT IMAGERY (VIZ) SHOWED  CLOUDY SKIES PREVAILED OVER MOST AREAS OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHILE RADAR OBS DETECTED  A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AFFECTED THE CENTRAL AND N'RN DISTRICTS. WV IMAGERY DETECTED MOIST CONDITIONS ACROSS S'RN MEXICO / YUCATAN - GUATEMALA - BZE AND COASTALL WATERS WHILE LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (00Z) SHOWED TOTAL AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE OF 47-57mm OVER OUR AREA. A SWATH OF LOWER AVAILABLE MOISTURE EXTENDED E'WARDS NEAR E'RN HONDURAS / NICAARAGUA.  SKEW-T (24 / 00Z) SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST AND RELATIVELY UNSTABLE ENVIRON WITH PW 51.46mm, LIFTED -4.34, CAPE 1866j/kg, KI 27.70 AND SHOW 2.87.

SFC ANALYSIS (HPC - 23 / 18Z) HAD A TROPICAL WAVE EXITING THE REGION ALONG 92W AND A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE NW'RN GLF FROM TEXAS / LOUISIANA TO NE'RN MEXICO. A LIGHT ENE;LY SFC FLOW PREVAILED WHILE AT LOW LVLS THE FLOW WAS E'LY - ESE'LY SUE TO TROUGHING TO THE WEST. AT MID - UPPER LVLS A LOW NORTH OF YUCATAN EXTENDS A TUTT SW'WARDS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE / S'RN MEXICO. THE FLOW WAS GENERALLY W'LY AND ANALYSIS SHOW A DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT.

THE GFS MAINTAINS AN E'LY - ENE'LY SFC FLOW DURING THIS 3-DAY CYCLE WHILE AT LOW LVLS THE FLOW IS TO ALSO CONTINUE E'LY - ESE'LY. A RELATIVELY DRIER 850-650hPa LAYER IS TO PREVAIL EARLY TONIGHT WITH AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE / INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP BY EARLY MORNING THRU MID-AFTERNOON. SOME DRIER AIR IS TO AGAIN INVADE THE LOW - MID LVLS AFTER MID-CYCLE. HOWEVER MOISTURE IS TO BE MORE READILY AVAILABLE AND IN A DEEPER LAYER OVER THE SOUTH.  AT UPPER LVLS THE LOW IS TO DROP SOUTH TO YUCATAN THIS CYCLE AND MAINTAIN THE TROUGH WEST AND SOUTH WEST ACROSS THE S'RN GLF. THIS WILL SUPPORT AN INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT  UPPER LVL PATTERN OVER-NIGHT THRU THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE SYNOPSIS SUGGEST DEVELOPMENT OF MOD - DEEP CONVECTION AGAIN BY EARLY MORNING AND THRU MID-DAY TOMORROW WITH A MORE DIURNAL PATTERN TO RE-ESTABLISH DURING THE REM OF THE FCST AND EXTND PERIODS AND INTO DAY THREE.

THE GFS / NAM SUGGEST RR AMTS OF .5-1.25ins/3hrs TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY SMALLER AMTS (.5-.75ins/3hrs THE FOLLOWING TWO NIGHTS. STILL SMALLER DAYTIME AMTS ARE EXPECRTED THRU WED.  NVG ALSO GOES FOR AN ACTIVE RAINFALL PATTERN  AT NIGHT-TIME WITH 12-16mm/12hrs AND 6-10mm/12hrs DURING THE DAY. THESE AMTS ARE PROG TO INCREASE DURING DAY THREE.    

CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND CLOUDY WITH SUNNY BREAKS TOMORROW. SOME SHOWERS, A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILOL OCCUR MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THEN DECREASING AND AFFECTING MOSTLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN AND SOME COASTAL AREAS MON. NIGHT WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY INLAND DURING TUES.
Winds Seas Waves
East-Northeast | 5-15 kts Light Chop 2-4 ft

Forecaster: Gentle, Michael

Last Updated: Sun, Sep 23, 2018 | 08:10 PM