Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER PREVAILED OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING EXCEPT OVER THE MAYA MOUNTAINS WHERE A FEW SHOWERS, RAIN AND POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WERE NOTED. WV IMAGERY SHOW RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS AT THE UPPER LEVS. LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS SHOW RELATIVELY LOW AVALIABLE MOISTURE WITH PWAT OF AROUND 35-40MM OVER THE COUNTRY.

SFC ANALYSIS (NHC-18Z) SHOW AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT NEAR N'RN YUCATAN EXTENDING FROM A FRONTAL LOW NEAR COASTAL GEORGIA. A POLAR HIGH WAS NOTED OVER TEXAS. THE APPROACH OF THE FRONT HAS CAUSED WINDS TO BACK UP TO THE NE OVER BZE. LIGHT NE'LY WINDS WERE NOTED IN THE LOW LEVS (850-700HPA WHILE AT MID-LEVS THE FLOW WAS SW'LY. AT THE UPPER LEVS THE TROF SUPPORTING THE FRONT BOTTOMED OUT OVER N'RN MEX WHILE A RIDGE WAS NOTED EAST OF THE AREA. THIS SUPPORTS A NEUTRAL WSW'LY FLOW ALOFT. 

THE GFS FCST THE COLD FRONT TO CROSS BETWEEN 09Z AND 12Z TOMORROW MORNING WITH WINDS BECOMING N'LY AND GUSTY IN ITS WAKE. THE MODEL ALSO SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT. AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES TOMORROW ALL AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL BE SWEPT OUT TO SEA AND POSSIBLE THE EXTREME SOUTH OF THE COUNTRY. BY MONDAY NIGHT THE SOUTH CLEARS UP AS WELL.  WINDS ALOFT ARE FCST TO REMAIN WSW'LY WITH ONLY WEAK UPPER DYNAMICS (NEUTRAL). THIS WILL LIKLEY ONLY SUPPORT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. 

THE MODELS (GFS, WRF AND NAM) SUGGESTS A SLIGHT INCREASE IN RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE FRONT. LATER IN THE DAY RAINFALL BECOMES CONFINED TO THE SEA AND EXTREME SOUTH AND BY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL IS FCST FOR THE COUNTRY.

CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT WITH A FEW SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY INLAND AT FIRST THEN SPREADING TO COASTAL AREAS LATER. CLOUDY, WINDY AND COOL TOMORROW WITH LIGHT RAIN OR SHOWERS OVER THE SEA AND IN THE SOUTH.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY, WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
Winds Seas Waves
Northeast | 5-15 kts Light Chop-Choppy 2-3 ft

Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald

Last Updated: Sun, Dec 09, 2018 | 06:10 PM