Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • At 3:00am, Hurricane Maria was located near 21.6N, 70.6W or 35mls ENE of Grand Turk Island. Maria was moving NW at 7mph with maximum sustained winds of 125mph. Tropical Storm Jose has become Post Tropical.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUED MOSTLY FAIR AROUND THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR OBS SUGGESTED ONLY A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED OVER THE MAYA MOUNTAINS AND DISSIPATED BY SUNSET. SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW CONVECTIVE CLOUDS DRIFTED FROM N'RN GUATEMALA TOWARDS  S'RN BELIZE AFTER 22Z. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MID-UPPER LEVELS WERE MOIST OVER MOST OF THE REGION EXCEPT FOR BELIZE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE TPW IMAGE SHOWED MOISTURE WAS LOW NEAR THE COUNTRY WITH VALUES LESS THAN 40MM. THE 00Z SOUNDING CONFIRMED A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH PWAT 36.38, KINX 15.9, CAPE 820.3, LIFT -1.80 AND SHOW 6.68.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 18Z SHOWED A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEAR 89W WHILE A TROPICAL WAVE WAS OVER THE CNTRL ATLANTIC. HURRICANE MARIA WAS ESE OF GRAND TURK ISLAND WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS OF 125MPH.  A SLACK PRESSURE PATTERN OVER THE AREA SUPPORTED A LIGHT E'-NE'LY  FLOW AT SFC AND AT THE LOW LEVELS.  AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE FLOW CONTINUED NNE'LY AND THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL.

GFS FCSTS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN LOW OVER THE AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A DIURNAL PATTERN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AT NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING. SFC WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY FROM THE ENE DURING THE FCST PERIOD WHILE AT 850MB AND 700MB WINDS ARE FCST TO BECOME SE'LY BY TOMORROW. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EAST OF THE AREA IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT A WSW FLOW AT 200MB BY TOMORROW MORNING AND AT 300MB BY SATURDAY MORNING. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT. 

GFS SUGGESTS RAINFALL AMTS OF 0.50-0.75IN/3HRS OVER SOUTHERN AREAS TONIGHT THEN LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OVER MOST OF THE COUNTRY DURING TOMORROW WITH AN INCREASE OF 0.25-0.50IN/3HRS SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT. NAM SHOWS A SIMILAR RR AMT OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT WITH TOMORROW NIGHT'S RR STARTING EARLIER THAN SUGGESTED BY GFS. WRF SHOWS 1-5MM/3HRS OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING THEN GOES FOR 5-10MM/3HRS SOUTH TOMORROW NIGHT.  

 

 

PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY IS FOR MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY ISOLATED EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT.
Winds Seas Waves
East-Northeast | 5-15 kts Choppy 2-3 ft

Forecaster: Smith, Michelle

Last Updated: Thu, Sep 21, 2017 | 08:04 PM