Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

FAIR AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAILED AROUND THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. RADAR OBS SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT SHOWER ACTIVITY OCCURRED. WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATED THE MID-UPPER LEVELS CONTINUED DRY OVER THE REGION EXCEPT FOR A SMALL AMT OF MOISTURE OVER THE N'RN CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. THE LATEST (18Z) TPW IMAGERY SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE REMAINED LOW NEAR THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES IN THE RANGE 30-40MM. 

SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 12Z SHOWED A 1013MB LOW OVER THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDED TO NEAR 88W AND A PREFRONTAL TROUGH EXTENDED TO 86W. ANOTHER TROUGH WAS OVER THE SW GULF AND A THIRD TROUGH WAS OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN NEAR 79W. THE LATTER FEATURE SUPPORTED A LIGHT NNW'LY SURFACE FLOW OVER THE AREA. AT 850MB THE FLOW WAS NNE'LY AND AT 700MB THE FLOW WAS SSE'LY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY DIVERGENT AND WINDS CONTINUED FROM THE WSW AS A TROUGH AXIS REMAINED OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE.

THE GFS (12Z) MODEL RUN FCST MOISTURE LEVELS WILL REMAIN LOW TODAY THROUGH MOST OF TOMORROW THEN  INCREASE LATE TOMORROW NIGHT AS A PREFRONTAL TROUGH/SHEAR LINE AFFECTS THE COUNTRY. SURFACE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FLUCTUATE BETWEEN NNW'LY AND NNE'LY DURING TODAY AND TOMORROW AS THE TROUGH REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA. THE 850MB FLOW IS EXPECTED BECOME SE'LY LATER TODAY AND NW'LY BY TOMORROW WHILE THE 700MB FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BECOME SW'LY TODAY THEN W'LY TOMORROW. ALOFT WINDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN SW'LY AS THE TROUGH MOVES BACK AND FORTH OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE PATTERN IS TO REMAIN WEAKLY DIVERGENT. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE LIMITED TODAY AND TOMORROW THEN INCREASE TOMORROW NIGHT. 

GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL OVER THE COUNTRY DURING THE FCST PERIOD. THEREAFTER THE MODEL SUGGESTS 0.01-0.10INS./3HRS INLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN GRADUALLY SPREAD TO COASTAL AREAS TOMORROW NIGHT WITH 0.10-0.25INS./3HRS OVER THE SOUTH COAST. WRF SHOWS 1-5MM/3HRS OVER THE INTERIOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON THEN SIMILAR AMTS OVER THE NORTH, SOUTH AND COAST TOMORROW NIGHT. NAM ONLY SHOWS A SMALL MAXIMA OVER THE NORTH TOMORROW NIGHT. 

SUNNY DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.
MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THEN A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY COASTAL AREAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT BECOMING ISOLATED BY THURSDAY MORNING.
Winds Seas Waves
North-Northeast | 5-15 kts Choppy 3-4 ft

Forecaster: Smith, Michelle

Last Updated: Tue, Nov 21, 2017 | 02:21 PM