Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • For the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

A FEW SHOWERS OCCURRED ALONG THE SARSTOON EARLY LAST NIGHT WITH GENERALLY FAIR CONDITIONS OVER MOST AREAS DURING THE NIGHT AND THIS MORNING. WV IMAGERY SHOWED SOME UPPER LVL MOISTURE OVER MEXICO AND THE GLF - CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE W'RN CARIBBEAN. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (11Z) SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE OF 40-50mm OVER OUR AREA. SKEW-T (12Z) SOUNDING WAS N/A DUE TO GEF. 

SFC ANALYSIS (HPC - 17 / 06Z) HAD A RIDGE FROM THE N'RN ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GLF AND E'RN MEXICO WITH A SLACK PRESSURE GRADIENT AND LIGHT ENE'LY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS EXITING ALONG 90W WITH A SECOND WAVE ALONG 75W AND A THIRD NEAR 47W / 48W. AN E'LY - ESE'LY FLOW PREVAILED AT LOW - MID LVLS AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE WHILE AT UPPER LVLS A S'LY FLOW FROM A TUTT NORTH OF YUCATAN FROM A LOW OVER CENTRAL - W'RN  CUBA. ANALYSIS SHOW A WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN OVER S'RN BZE - NW'RN HONDURAS. 

THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS PROJECTED / EXPECTED ALONG 81W TONIGHT AND 87W TOMORROW NIGHT. GFS SUGGEST A LIGHT ENE'LY SFC FLOW TODAY AND TOMORROW WHILE AT LOW LVLS SLIGHT VEERING IS SUGGESTED AT LOW LVLS WITH THE FLOW BECMG ESE'LY TOMORROW EVENING AND NIGHT. THE GFS ALSO SUGGEST LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH A SURGE / INCREASE IN LOW LVL MOISTURE / CONVERGENCE LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TOMORROW ACCOMPANIED BY MOD - STRONG LIFT THRU THE MID - UPPER LVLS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. AT UPPER LVLS THE LOW IS TO STEER WEST ACROSS YUCATAN - BAY OF CAMPECHE EARLY THIS CYCLE WHILE THE TUTT IS TO DROP SOUTH ACROSS YUCATAN TO BZE BY THE END OF THIS 3-DAY CYCLE. THE FLOW IS TO CONTINUE S'LY THRU TOMORROW THEN BECMG N'[LY DURING DAY THREE. SOME UPPER LVL CONVERGENCE IS TO DEVELOP TODAY WITH THE PATTERN BECMG A BIT DIVERGENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW OVER MOST AREAS TODAY WITH A BIT MORE LIKELY OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT DUE TO LOCAL EFFECTS THEN INCREASING ALONG THE COAST AS THE DYNAMICS IMPROVE. 

THE GFS SUGGEST RR AMTS OF .10-.25ins/3hrs TODAY THRU EARLY TONIGHT THEN INCREASES TO .5-.75ins/3hrs LATER AND THRU EARLY TOMORROW NIGHT. THE NAM CONTINUES CONSERVATIVE / RELATIVELY DRY WITH RR AMTS OF nil-.10ins/3hrs THROUGH-OUT THIS CYCLE. NVG SHOWS LIGHT RAINFALL TODAY AND 8-12mm/12hrs TONIGHT AND SIMILAR AMTS TOMORROW AND TOMORROW NIGHT.   

   

MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS DURING WED. AND OVER THE SOUTH AND ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS WED. NIGHT.
Winds Seas Waves
East-Northeast | 5-15 kts Light Chop 2-4 ft

Forecaster: Gentle, Michael

Last Updated: Tue, Jul 17, 2018 | 07:13 AM